Hey guys,
⚠️ The crypto market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed meeting, but a much tougher factor is looming on the horizon — the possibility of the US entering into direct military conflict with Iran.
🗣️ Yesterday's statement by Trump heightened tensions: he gave Iran 48 hours to sign an agreement, otherwise escalation is possible. It is clear that there is no real plan to resolve the conflict, and the situation is likely to only worsen.
📉 Against this backdrop, if the market consensus remains negative after the financial close closer to Friday, we can expect increased pressure and a move into correction zones. The minimum targets in such a scenario are:
🔻 #BTC — Reload Zone 1: 97K–95K
🔻 #ETH — Reload Zone 1: 2100–2000
This is the baseline scenario, assuming increased geopolitical negativity + a possible hawkish signal from the Fed.
🚀 In the case of an alternative scenario — if the market is positive, for example, a signal to pause interest rates or a temporary easing of the conflict — then we can consider a scenario of breaking through the upper limits of consolidation.
📈 Important areas to watch in a bullish scenario:
🟢 BTC — a breakout of 106K opens the way higher
🟢 ETH — a breakout of 2700 and consolidation above — a signal for continued growth
🧠 Important: let's not rush to conclusions before the financial results and geopolitical developments. The market can go in any direction, but the levels are marked — and we will react to them.
