Ethereum ETH Long-Short Meat Grinder: The Life-and-Death Struggle of News and Technicals

News Environment: Policy Black Swan and Institutional Covert Wars

  1. Policy Risk Looms: The political clash between Trump and Musk has triggered market panic, with ETH plummeting 6.7% in a single day. The current review of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. could classify ETH as a security, possibly triggering compliance sell-offs.

  2. Institutional Divergence Intensifies: BlackRock invested $163 million to buy the dip in ETH on June 12, indicating traditional capital is positioning for a low; however, ETF funds have seen net outflows exceeding $369 million for eight consecutive days, and BlackRock itself is also reducing holdings, intensifying the long-short battle.

  3. On-chain Alert: Exchange ETH reserves have fallen to a three-year low, while some large whales are selling off, indicating a divergence in the outlook of major holders for the short term.

Technical Analysis: Death Cross in Deep Water, Critical Level Life-and-Death Battle

  1. Bollinger Bands Opening Downward: Prices continue to be pressured at the middle band, with the lower band support having moved down to $2,511; breaking below may open up a space for a sharp decline.

  2. MACD Death Cross Continues: DIF and DEA are deeply entrenched below the zero axis, with the green bars shortening only indicating a slowdown in the decline, not a reversal signal.

  3. Long-Short Showdown Zone:

    • Support Level: $2,380~$2,400 Multiple tests in June have not broken; a break could trigger panic selling;

    • Resistance Level: $2,700 A false breakout on June 9 formed a 'bull trap.'

The news environment is tense, and the technical outlook is precarious—the market shows no sympathy for those who rely on luck, only rewarding the disciplined.

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