'News-driven sell-off, technical bottoming, BTC showdown at 103,000 — holding it is a golden pit, failing to hold is a mass grave!'

News: Three 'swords' hanging overhead

  1. Federal Reserve 'hawk's claw' scratching: Interest rate decision announced at 2 AM tonight, market expects rates to remain unchanged, but rate cuts in 2025 may shrink from 2 times to 1 time, strengthening dollar suppresses risk assets. If Powell speaks 'hawkish', BTC may face further pressure.

  2. Middle East powder keg smoking: Trump urgently halts G7 meeting, US aircraft carrier heads to the Middle East, Israel-Iran conflict escalates. Geopolitical risks trigger risk-averse sentiment, but the market has partially developed immunity to 'Trump panic'.

  3. Institutions secretly bottoming out: Bitcoin ETF sees net inflows for 7 consecutive days, BlackRock buys $267 million in a single day! Whale addresses increase by 3%, large holders accumulate while prices drop, contrasting with retail panic.

Technical perspective: death cross probing the bottom, Bollinger Bands 'trumpet opening'

MACD death cross accelerates: 4-hour chart shows DIF crossing below DEA, green bars extend, short-term bears control the market.

Bollinger Bands can't hold: price breaks below the middle line at 104,696, the mouth of the trumpet opens downward, volatility surges. If the key support at 103,000 is lost, the next stop is straight to 100,000.

Bull-bear death line: upper resistance at 106,000, lower fortress at 103,000-104,000.

Data speaks: $1.5 billion liquidated in 24 hours, long-short ratio plummeted to 0.8:1, funding rate -0.02% — market panic to the extreme often breeds a reversal.

'With the Federal Reserve's scythe swung, a black swan flies over the Middle East — if 103,000 is the iron bottom, then what’s being bought now is the institution's back route; if it’s made of paper, then it's the grave of the bulls!'

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