Odaily Planet Daily News QCP Capital stated that the conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its sixth day, with both sides continuing missile exchanges and dim prospects for a diplomatic resolution. G7 leaders have repeatedly called for Iran to return to nuclear talks with the United States, but the scheduled talks this Sunday are unlikely to take place. The market is paying attention to the restructuring of power in the Middle East and the impact of the proxy game among the US, Russia, and China. The Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point; if Iran is pushed to the brink, it may block this vital global oil transport route, leading to supply shocks and inflation risks. President Trump has strongly demanded Iran's 'unconditional surrender,' and the market generally expects Iran may partially or fully yield, but the situation remains highly uncertain. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical conflict and inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve faces a complex situation in its meeting tonight. The market is currently pricing in two rate cuts in 2025 and two more in 2026, but QCP Asia expects the Fed may adopt a more cautious tone in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), possibly indicating only one rate cut in 2025, contrasting with market expectations. If the Fed makes such an adjustment, due to reduced liquidity expectations, it may put pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin and broader digital assets.

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