At 2 AM (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. There will definitely be no rate cut in June; everyone basically guessed this. Remember at the beginning of the year, everyone thought there would be a rate cut in June, but unexpectedly, Trump's tariffs pushed the expectation for a rate cut to September.
Since it was expected that there would be no rate cut in June, the market shouldn't panic too much, and there shouldn't be any panic selling. What is most concerning now is the 'dot plot' that will be announced at the Federal Reserve meeting. This chart is quite important because it can accurately tell us how many times the Federal Reserve officials expect to cut interest rates this year, so this chart is key tonight.
Now the expectations on CEX have advanced a lot. With no rate cut in June or July, September is getting closer. As I mentioned before, in this context of no rate cuts, the market isn't afraid of not rising; rather, it's afraid that if it rises, it won't stabilize. If it doesn't stabilize, it indicates that the money in the market lacks confidence, there's no new story to tell, and no hot topics to speculate on. This kind of market is very grinding. The situation mentioned above is a true reflection of the current market.
The biggest highlight of tonight's meeting is the 'dot plot'. Let's see how many times the Federal Reserve officials plan to cut interest rates this year. The possibility of the first rate cut in September is very high. When will the second cut happen? Will there be a cut? We will have to wait for the results announced tonight.
Last night, the US Senate passed the 'Stablecoin Act' (Genius Act). Next, this bill will be sent to the House of Representatives for discussion and voting. The market generally estimates that the House will complete the voting in a few weeks. Theoretically, there shouldn't be any major issues with this bill passing.
Currently, funds are all focusing on stablecoins. Trump has even created a USD1 stablecoin, and Binance is strongly supporting it, indicating that they want it to become the main stablecoin on the platform like BUSD back in the day.
Last night, the US Treasury Secretary also expressed his views on the Genius bill. He believes that by 2030, the scale of on-chain stablecoins will reach 3.7 trillion, close to twice the current market value of Bitcoin. Such a huge influx of funds will definitely lead to multiple altcoin bull markets.
However! Just like I reminded before, the future 'altcoin bull' won't be like before where all small coins rise together. Instead, it will be 'droughts will die of drought, floods will die of floods'. The ones that can truly benefit are those projects with solid foundational technology and infrastructure, and among the top players in various fields. Many small coins might only be able to sip some soup, and even some old coins might not have much to do with this market trend.
So, the most critical operation in this round of playing with altcoins is to quickly get rid of the garbage coins in hand! Don't expect the overall market to rise and save those hopeless projects. Concentrate your funds and invest in the good projects that truly have users, real funding, and genuine resources.
The time window for each project to become popular is limited; if you miss it, it's really gone. The pace of development in the crypto space is much faster than in 2017 and 2021. For example, the following projects are considered to have the opportunity to attract more traditional funds through approval like Bitcoin ETFs or are backed by listed companies. For instance, the listed company TRNR announced last night that it raised 55 million USD and is preparing to buy FET in the market.
XRP, LTC, DOGE, SOL, AVAX, SUI, DOT, BNB, ADA, PENGU, APT, MOVE, HBAR, AXL, BONK, TRUMP, TRX.
These are the projects that can truly attract large funds from the US stock market.
Finally, let's talk about the funding situation: From the beginning of the year until now, the total amount of stablecoins in the market has been steadily increasing. Logically, with so much money flowing in, there should be a portion that can enter the market and push it up, right? But the reality is, the small coin market not only hasn't risen but has actually dropped even worse.
Next, don't have too high hopes. Just hope Bitcoin can stabilize in the next month or two, without a big drop, and then slowly rise to create a new high. This will also give some time for small coins to absorb some 'blood' and have a small-scale altcoin season.
Brothers came to the chat room to communicate: