The military tensions in the Middle East have entered a critical phase. As Israel intensifies its strikes against Iran, the prediction markets are also heating up. The likelihood of a U.S. attack is rising to unprecedented levels. This new round of turmoil has heightened concerns about the outbreak of regional conflicts, drawing close attention from investors, especially in the crypto ecosystem. While escalation could lead to a full-scale war, there are public bets on the blockchain platform Polymarket that the U.S. will carry out military strikes against Iran before July 1, 2025. Here are the highlights: These on-chain data show the extent to which the market is currently pricing in geopolitical risks, including within the blockchain ecosystem. Diplomatic news has exacerbated concerns. According to several sources, Donald Trump abruptly left the G7 summit to 'directly address the Iran crisis.' It was reported that the U.S. president mentioned an immediate evacuation from Tehran and proposed a plan that could be more comprehensive than a simple ceasefire, raising fears of a large-scale offensive strategy. Meanwhile, the Chinese embassy in Tel Aviv has requested all Chinese citizens to leave Israel, a very serious escalation on the international stage. In addition to this unsettling escalation, other prediction markets are intensifying the debate. On the U.S. regulatory platform Kalshi, a bet of $52,999 indicates a 46% chance that Washington and Tehran will sign a nuclear agreement by the end of this year. The site estimates a 41% likelihood that the U.S. delegation will formally meet with Iranian representatives before July. At the same time, Polymarket offers a second relevant market with a trading volume of $1.62 million, predicting a 51% chance that Iran will sign a formal agreement on its nuclear program before December 31, 2025. This scenario can only be confirmed if the two governments issue a joint statement on civilian or military nuclear issues. The escalation of tensions has reignited the debate on the interplay between geopolitical events and market trends, as evidenced by the drop in Bitcoin following Israel's initial attack. Although U.S. military options remain uncertain, the rising likelihood in prediction markets has sent clear signals. Therefore, the coming weeks will be closely monitored by analysts and investors, wary of potential shifts in the Middle Eastern strategic landscape.
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