As the world enters a new period of turmoil, with the Middle East engulfed in war, energy prices soaring, and currency uncertainty increasing, one anomaly remains: Bitcoin is rising rather than falling. In an environment where traditional assets are struggling, this is a remarkable paradox. Should this be seen as further evidence of Bitcoin's transformation into a safe haven? Or is market enthusiasm fueling a false sense of stability? Against the backdrop of escalating tensions between great powers, with Iran in the spotlight and oil prices surging, Bitcoin broke through $108,000 this Monday. This is not merely a simple technical rebound: it is a counter-trend reaction from a market beset by widespread concerns. When stock indices are volatile, BTC paves the way. Why? The answer partly lies in the substantial inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs: $301.7 million on Friday and over $1 billion announced by Strategy on Monday. It is not retail investors driving this but institutions. In other words, those who suffered the most during the crisis continue to accumulate wealth. Coupled with a 5% premium in futures contracts and calm in the options market (Delta down to 1%), you get a clear signal: the market is not in a panic. As reported by Cointelegraph, it believes this. However, this apparent calm conceals a more complex reality. Oil prices driven by tensions in the Middle East could reignite an inflation spiral. And where there is inflation, there are high interest rates that persist for longer periods. This could put pressure on all assets... including Bitcoin. Yet, confidence remains unchanged. Is this a rational strategy or a risky bet? Philippe Gijsels of BNP Paribas Fortis advises caution: "The market reaction is very mild, so if the situation escalates, there is still room for disappointment." Bitcoin is nearing its peak, flirting with excessive optimism in a world that is not so. Bitcoin is just 4% away from its historical high in May. This is a symbolic threshold. If this threshold is breached, it could trigger a wave of FOMO bullish sentiment. But in this unstable geopolitical context, nothing is guaranteed. A slight shock in interest rates, energy prices, or the trade war with China could reverse this trend. Experienced expert Ed Yardeni reminds us that the trade war sparked by Trump could resurface. If tensions continue to escalate, Bitcoin may find its current stability is just a mirage. This is not the first time Bitcoin has weathered the storm. But this time, it almost defies the logic of traditional markets. Is this the beginning of its new status as a digital safe haven? Or is the market excitedly refusing to see the clouds on the horizon? One thing is certain: traders have made a choice. For now, they are betting on Bitcoin like El Salvador. Those who know how to position themselves in advance can seize the windfall. It all comes down to whether you dare to get on board early!
