Highlights on June 18
The Federal Reserve is set to announce interest rates at 2 AM tonight. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in this meeting is 0. The focus tonight should be on the dot plot, the number of potential rate cuts within the year, and Powell's press conference (2:30 AM). We should capture his stance through Powell's speech. If it leans dovish and remains unchanged, the dot plot may suggest 1 or even 2 rate cuts this year, which would be favorable in the short term, leading to a potential decline in US Treasury yields, a weaker dollar index, and an increased risk appetite for crypto assets, bringing opportunities for mainstream accumulation and altcoin rotation. However, if it leans hawkish, the dot plot may no longer indicate rate cuts this year, with Powell reiterating the priority of combating inflation, especially due to recent oil price increases caused by the conflict with Iran, which would put short-term pressure on crypto.
The SEC has postponed the approval of Franklin's XRP and Solana spot ETFs.
BTC closed yesterday with a bearish candle, and the overall trend during the day was bearish, mainly driven by the geopolitical conflict. Recent pinning events are to be expected. After a rebound from the low of 103,000 yesterday, the rebound strength was not strong, with significant resistance at higher levels. Pay attention to the resistance level around 106,500 during the day; only if this level is held can it move upwards. Watch for support between the 103,000-102,000 range.
ETH reached an overall intraday low of 2,480, with pinning near 2,450. This aligns with the intraday strategy. A short-term resistance point is formed in the range of 2,620-2,640. The daily chart shows a trend of three consecutive bearish candles, maintaining an overall bearish trend. Pay attention to the 2,480-2,465 range on the four-hour chart; if it breaks below, it may target 2,430-2,400. The upper intraday resistance level is in the range of 2,540-2,570.
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