The IBCI remains stable between cycles while valuation indices suggest BTC may be undervalued.
Miners reduce selling pressure as Bitcoin price holds steady with gradual support.
The current market structure of Bitcoin [BTC] remains strong as the IBCI index accumulates around the 50% zone – a historical area that has been the 'fatigue boundary – stimulus for new momentum' in the cryptocurrency market.
The fact is, after surpassing the 75% peak at the beginning of 2024 and then slightly adjusting, the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) has now returned to a neutral state, signaling a period approaching new momentum.
Usually, this zone often shows accumulation signals – not a peak. This is easily recognizable if the price clearly recovers.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading around the $105,571 mark, while maintaining a fairly safe distance from the overbought zone. This continues to reinforce the view that the market may be shifting states – instead of creating a peak.
Source: CryptoQuant
BTC's upward channel: Bulls firmly hold the strategic structure
Although there has recently been a short-term adjustment, Bitcoin still respects the upward price channel formed since April. The price consistently hovers above the support zone in the channel, while the key resistance at the $112,000 mark may appear nearby.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuates around 49.89 – 53.14, reflecting a state of balance – with no clear bias. The resistance level has not been broken, and the buying investor sentiment still prevails.
As long as this structure holds, the potential for creating a new peak remains wide open, especially if new growth catalysts appear.
Source: TradingView
The on-chain index plummets: Bullish divergence or risk warning?
The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has dropped sharply by 52.62%, down to 33.87. The Network Value to Metcalfe (NVM) has decreased by 43.35%, to 2.49. Such strong volatility often reveals that market capitalization is undervaluing the on-chain trading strength and the level of ecosystem expansion.
Cryptocurrency history shows that sharp drops in NVT/user are signals for bull run cycles, as the market is 'not pricing enough' for the network's intrinsic potential.
This hidden divergence encourages long-term investor confidence as they prepare to position themselves before valuation indices return to equilibrium.
Source: CryptoQuant
Stablecoin reserves decrease: A real concern?
The Exchange Stablecoin Ratio recorded at 5.60, after a decrease of 2.38%. This reflects a slight decrease in stablecoin flows on the exchange – short-term liquidity may decline but is not negative.
In reality, this is not necessarily a bad signal for cryptocurrency. Overall reserves on the system are still sufficient to help whales 'push capital' into the market when necessary.
Typically, the adjustment phase is 'gaining momentum' before large stablecoin flows return. Risk only appears when this index plummets to dangerous levels. Right now, the bullish momentum of Bitcoin is still preserved.
Source: CryptoQuant
Miners shift to accumulation: The supply for sale continues to tighten.
The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has increased by 49.8%, reaching -0.88. This negative value indicates that the supply of Bitcoin released by miners is still lower than the average over the past year.
Historical trends confirm that the phase of miners 'sitting still' completely coincides with the hold mentality and declining selling pressure, helping to reduce volatility in the market.
MPI increases, although still negative, confirms a more favorable price environment. Other growth drivers continue to support the stability of Bitcoin's price.
Source: CryptoQuant
The IBCI stabilizes between cycles, the technical structure holds firm, and the valuation index is low – all are causing Bitcoin to converge on clear bullish factors.
In the context of miners reducing selling pressure, liquidity remains abundant, and valuations continue to be attractive, the cryptocurrency market has a basis to expect the next growth wave, provided that technical and macro signals are not broken.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/dau-hieu-tang-gia-moi-tu-chi-so-bitcoin/
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