#美联储利率决策即将公布 : Inaction Becomes the Norm, Is There Still Doubt About the Rate Cut Path?
In the early hours of June 19 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. The market generally expects that, in the face of persistent inflation and geopolitical risks, the Federal Reserve will maintain the interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive time. Although non-farm employment in May exceeded expectations, core inflation stubbornly remains at 2.8%, coupled with the possibility that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration may raise import costs, making the timing for a rate cut highly uncertain.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks will become the focus. If he emphasizes "data dependence" and keeps the option for a rate cut open, the market may remain cautiously optimistic; however, if he hints that tariffs and geopolitical risks will delay the easing cycle, it may trigger a stronger dollar and volatility in U.S. stocks. Current interest rate futures indicate that two rate cuts in 2025 are still the baseline expectation, but the actual path still depends on the speed of inflation decline and economic resilience.
In the short term, the Federal Reserve is likely to choose a combination of "holding steady + vague guidance", avoiding premature easing that could exacerbate inflation while leaving room for future policy adjustments. What the market is truly concerned about is whether September will become the first window for a rate cut — this suspense may continue until economic data in the second half of the year becomes clearer.
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