Over the past month, Bitcoin [BTC] has continued to trade within an upward channel; thus, many STH and LTH holders have gained considerable profits.
During this price surge, at least 98% of holders are currently in profit, resulting in higher profits.
Newer coins are driving selling pressure.
The increase in profit margins suggests that these holders are also starting to take profits. Therefore, both short-term and long-term holders are now taking profits, leading to significant selling pressure.
However, the selling activity of younger long-term holders (LTH) or mid-cycle buyers has intensified. According to Glassnode, mid-cycle buyers holding BTC for 6 to 12 months have entered the market and are selling large amounts.
In the past day, this group of investors realized profits of $904 million, accounting for 83% of all realized profits, making it the second-highest single-day profit this year.
In terms of daily profits, the realized profit amount is second only to the peak in April, indicating that buyers have begun active distribution in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Bitcoin holders with a holding period of 12 months recently realized only $324 million in profits, a significant drop compared to the $1.2 billion sold during last week's peak.
This shift indicates that the rate of profit-taking among long-term holders (LTH) has slowed, as the LTH SOPR metric has dropped sharply from 3.4 to 1.8.
The decline indicates that while there has been some selling, the extent is much smaller, reflecting the increasing confidence and belief of old BTC holders.
The decline in the profit-taking rate of old coins indicates that experienced Bitcoin holders are currently exiting the market. Therefore, as of now, new coins are exiting the market alongside this group of holders, causing significant selling pressure.
What does this mean for BTC
In the past day, the sharp increase in profit-taking from newly purchased Bitcoin has significantly affected the price trend of Bitcoin.
As new holders begin to take profits, BTC has fallen from $108,990 to a low of $106,853, facing strong selling pressure.
This decline has pushed BTC back into the previous consolidation range, indicating that bullish momentum is fleeting and sellers have re-entered the market.
The behavioral differences between new holders and long-term holders (LTH) are creating uncertainty: new coins are being sold while old coins remain idle.
If this trend continues—new holders selling while LTH holders remain stable—Bitcoin may continue to be in a consolidation phase. In this case, LTH will absorb selling pressure while new holders will limit any significant upward trends.
Therefore, BTC may continue to fluctuate between $104,000 and $106,000 until one side takes dominance.
Breaking above $107,000 and continuing towards $110,000 may depend on a decrease in profit-taking from new coins.
