As of June 18, 2025, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement, **the policy to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%** is not the sole determining factor for the short-term fluctuations of BTC and ETH. Its impact should be assessed in conjunction with the wording of the policy statement, economic forecasts, and market expectations:
### 📉 **1. Direct Downside Risks (Dominated by Hawkish Signals)**
1. **Inflation Concerns Suppress Risk Appetite**
- If the Federal Reserve emphasizes "inflation stubbornly above target" or "more time is needed to consider rate cuts", it will strengthen the hawkish stance, leading to a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity, potentially causing BTC and ETH to decline alongside U.S. stocks.
- Historical data shows that the average decline in the crypto market within 24 hours after a hawkish decision is 3%-5% (e.g., BTC fell 4.2% after the May 2024 meeting).
2. **Delayed Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on Capital Inflows**
- The market originally expected two rate cuts in 2025 (the first in September). If the dot plot suggests a delay until 2026, institutions may reduce their crypto asset holdings for risk aversion, slowing the inflow of funds into ETH spot ETFs (evidence of BlackRock's $120 million net redemption in a single day is already apparent).
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### 📈 **2. Upside Opportunities (Triggered by Dovish Signals)**
1. **Economic Recession Suggests Accelerated Easing Expectations**
- If the Federal Reserve lowers GDP growth forecasts or raises unemployment rate predictions (e.g., unemployment rate rising from 4.4% to 4.6%), the market may interpret this as "paving the way for rate cuts", leading to a rebound in risk assets. BTC is expected to break through the **$108,000** resistance, and ETH to test **$2,600**.
- Dovish language (e.g., "closely monitoring the weak job market") may push BTC up by more than 5% in a single day.
2. **Marginal Improvement in Liquidity Expectations**
- Although interest rates remain unchanged, if the statement removes phrases like "restrictive policies will continue" or suggests "future rate cut potential", it will boost market liquidity expectations, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate may stop declining and rebound.
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### 🌐 **3. Indirect Influencing Factors Amplifying Volatility**
1. **Geopolitical Conflicts and Risk Aversion Sentiment**
- Escalation of the Middle East situation (Israel-Iran conflict) raises oil prices. If the Federal Reserve does not mention "inflation is under control", it may exacerbate fears of "stagflation", triggering simultaneous sell-offs in the crypto market and U.S. stocks (VIX fear index spiking by 13%).
- **Diversion of Safe-Haven Funds**: If U.S. stocks plunge, some funds may flow into BTC (as a "digital gold"), but ETH may experience a greater decline due to leveraged liquidation pressures.
