星汉留金

As of June 18, 2025, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement, **the policy to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%** is not the sole determining factor for the short-term fluctuations of BTC and ETH. Its impact should be assessed in conjunction with the wording of the policy statement, economic forecasts, and market expectations:

### 📉 **1. Direct Downside Risks (Dominated by Hawkish Signals)**
1. **Inflation Concerns Suppress Risk Appetite**
- If the Federal Reserve emphasizes "inflation stubbornly above target" or "more time is needed to consider rate cuts", it will strengthen the hawkish stance, leading to a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity, potentially causing BTC and ETH to decline alongside U.S. stocks.
- Historical data shows that the average decline in the crypto market within 24 hours after a hawkish decision is 3%-5% (e.g., BTC fell 4.2% after the May 2024 meeting).

2. **Delayed Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on Capital Inflows**
- The market originally expected two rate cuts in 2025 (the first in September). If the dot plot suggests a delay until 2026, institutions may reduce their crypto asset holdings for risk aversion, slowing the inflow of funds into ETH spot ETFs (evidence of BlackRock's $120 million net redemption in a single day is already apparent).

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### 📈 **2. Upside Opportunities (Triggered by Dovish Signals)**
1. **Economic Recession Suggests Accelerated Easing Expectations**
- If the Federal Reserve lowers GDP growth forecasts or raises unemployment rate predictions (e.g., unemployment rate rising from 4.4% to 4.6%), the market may interpret this as "paving the way for rate cuts", leading to a rebound in risk assets. BTC is expected to break through the **$108,000** resistance, and ETH to test **$2,600**.
- Dovish language (e.g., "closely monitoring the weak job market") may push BTC up by more than 5% in a single day.

2. **Marginal Improvement in Liquidity Expectations**
- Although interest rates remain unchanged, if the statement removes phrases like "restrictive policies will continue" or suggests "future rate cut potential", it will boost market liquidity expectations, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate may stop declining and rebound.

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### 🌐 **3. Indirect Influencing Factors Amplifying Volatility**
1. **Geopolitical Conflicts and Risk Aversion Sentiment**
- Escalation of the Middle East situation (Israel-Iran conflict) raises oil prices. If the Federal Reserve does not mention "inflation is under control", it may exacerbate fears of "stagflation", triggering simultaneous sell-offs in the crypto market and U.S. stocks (VIX fear index spiking by 13%).
- **Diversion of Safe-Haven Funds**: If U.S. stocks plunge, some funds may flow into BTC (as a "digital gold"), but ETH may experience a greater decline due to leveraged liquidation pressures.

ETH#空单止盈策略

graph LR
A[Current Price 2525] --> B{Did it break 2500?}
B -->|Yes| C[Increase short position, target 2450]
B -->|No| D[Close 50%, remaining stop loss 2520]
C --> E[Take profit 50% at 2450]
E --> F[Close all at 2380]

According to a report by Reuters, Trump has requested the National Security Council to be on standby in the White House Situation Room, as he left the G7 summit early due to rising tensions between Israel and Iran.
A few hours ago, Trump posted a concerning message on his social media platform Truth Social: "Everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately!" Meanwhile, U.S. press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Trump arrived in Canada on Sunday to attend the annual G7 summit but left early due to the escalating situation.

In 2017, the State Bank of Vietnam issued an official letter prohibiting the use of cryptocurrencies as a legal payment method, but there was a lack of regulation regarding cryptocurrency ownership and P2P transactions, creating a legal gray area. The "National Blockchain Strategy 2024 - 2030" released in October 2024 aims to promote the application of blockchain in various fields, emphasizing regulated experiments through digital asset sandbox pilot projects.

#Metaplanet增持比特币 Let's talk about something real in our crypto circle! That listed company in Tokyo called Metaplanet has once again increased its Bitcoin holdings!
Just this past weekend, Metaplanet's CEO directly announced: They invested 117 million dollars and acquired 1,112 Bitcoins!
Calculating that, the average price per coin is about 105,000 dollars. This is quite significant, bringing their total Bitcoin holdings to exactly 10,000 coins!
Just think about that scale! When do you think they started buying? Overall, the average acquisition cost for these 10,000 Bitcoins is around 94,700 dollars.

The quarter of $BTC 2 is the last accumulation time of the bull market. Refer to the four screenshots below, $BTC 4 hours is looking for the last needle in the Wyckoff accumulation phase C. $ETH is still using sideways movement to replace the decline in the second wave on the daily chart. The strategy for the entire month of June is that when there is a significant increase, if you hold profitable large-cap coins, you can reduce your position and continue to buy back in batches. If you incur losses, just hold. As mentioned before, we use the cosmic clock and Gann's lunar cycle time law for mutual verification, both pointing to an outbreak in the second half of the year, with the cosmic clock more accurately predicting that the main surge will occur in the third quarter in August.

#特朗普比特币金库
On March 6, 2025, Trump signed an executive order to establish a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, utilizing approximately 200,000 Bitcoins (about 1% of the total supply) held by the government as a value storage asset, promising never to sell, to combat inflation and the national debt issue. This move fulfilled his campaign promise, aiming to make the U.S. the 'global cryptocurrency capital.' Trump also promoted pro-crypto policies, including appointing crypto-supportive officials and easing regulations, triggering a market frenzy, with Bitcoin prices once surpassing $100,000. However, the executive order did not clarify plans for reserves of other crypto assets, leading to market volatility, with Bitcoin prices dropping by about 5%. This action sparked controversy, with critics citing potential conflicts of interest and concerns that relaxed regulations could lead to market risks.

$ADA
- Short-term trend: On the daily chart, ADA is consolidating within an ascending triangle, with the resistance level at the top of the triangle around $0.74 and a support trend line formed by higher lows around $0.63 to $0.67, indicating increased demand. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the neutral zone between 55 and 60, leaving room for upward movement. The 50-day moving average (MA50) is on an upward trend and is about to form a golden cross with the 200-day moving average (MA200); if confirmed, this is a typical bullish signal.
​
- Medium-term trend: The weekly chart shows a descending wedge formation, which is typically associated with bullish reversals. Once the upper trend line of the wedge is broken, the first technical target may be around $1.32, indicating significant potential for upward movement.
​
- Key levels: Recent resistance is at $0.75, and support is at $0.58. If it breaks above $0.75, it may rise to $0.83; if it falls below $0.58, it may correct to $0.50.

#卡尔达诺稳定币提案 Cardano ecosystem welcomes an epic operation! Founder Charles Hoskinson personally takes action, launching a liquidity plan for stablecoins that will shake the market. The core actions target two major strategies:
1. Allocating $100 million worth of ADA from the Cardano treasury (currently holding 1.7 billion #ADA) to be directly exchanged for the ecosystem's native stablecoin USDM. This move injects super strong liquidity into the stablecoin system, akin to implanting a blood-producing machine into the "veins" of cryptocurrency.
2. Even more explosive, Cardano will partner with Brevan Howard, a firm managing over $20 billion in assets. This institution, renowned in the traditional financial sector, will enter the crypto space with a professional market-making team and risk control system, focusing on two battlegrounds:
#TVL (Total Value Locked) breakout battle: activating asset accumulation within DeFi protocols in the ecosystem through institutional-level strategies.
Liquidity market-making revolution: using algorithmic trading engines to completely solve the slippage issue in stablecoin exchanges.
Dual-core drive: this operation is not merely about burning money but aims to construct a "central bank + investment bank" for the crypto world.
Monetary aspect: creating a self-circulating stable currency system within the ecosystem through a two-way exchange mechanism between ADA and USDM.

Short-term resistance level 105500 for $ETH , resistance level 2550 for ETH. Regardless of whether you are stuck or want to open a position, you can consider trying a short position here. After the US stock market opens at night, we may see a good return. The EMA30 moving average for Bitcoin is 104800, the EMA60 daily moving average is 101350, and the EMA200 moving average is 92600. These levels are all key points. If it breaks below the EMA200, which is 93000, it would indicate a bear market (the probability of this is very low). So what should we do at this time? It's the same as before; those with enough positions should gradually buy the dips at the above key points and wait for a bull market.

Short-term resistance level 105500 for $BTC , resistance level for ETH 2550. Here, whether you are stuck in a position or looking to open a trade, you might consider trying a short position. After the U.S. stock market opens at night, we may see a good return. The EMA30 moving average for Bitcoin is 104800, EMA60 moving average is 101350, and EMA200 moving average is 92600. These points are all critical levels. If it breaks below the EMA200, which is 93000, that would indicate a bear market (the probability of this is extremely low). So what should we do at this time? It's still the same: for those with enough positions, gradually buy at the above critical levels and wait for a bull market.

#以色列伊朗冲突 这一觉起来，数字黄金成了数字了，直接G了啊，这每次中东大战最后都是crypto买单，一言难尽了。
1.$BTC 在以色列和伊朗的炮弹之下，直接一泻千里了，直接破位，不知道能不能撑住了；
2.$ETH 强势的一面在炮弹之下都撕去了面罩，直接该去哪儿就去哪儿了；
3.$SOL 这一波以为反弹起来猛了，结果没想到跌起来更猛了，一天时间168-150。

$BTC Short-term Trends (24-72 hours)
Technical indicators show 'Sell' signals from the 15-minute to 4-hour levels, and a correction of -1.59% has occurred within the last 24 hours. Key support to watch is the $107,000 mark (the trend line extension formed by the lowest price of $100,508 over the past 7 days). If it breaks below, it may test the strong support area at $105,000 (corresponding to the 30-day moving average and psychological round number). The upper resistance level is at $110,500 (overlapping area of the 24-hour high and the past 7-day high).

#美国加征关税 中美伦敦48小时死磕，暂时按住贸易战起爆钮，但引信烧到8月10号！谈崩就炸！
临时止痛：
美方：松了松稀土卡脖子的手。
中方：让深圳稀土恢复部分出口。
关税大跳水！ 美对华惩罚性关税从145%→30%，中对美从125%→10%
BUT! 头顶炸弹：
8月10日是生死线！ 谈不拢？所有降的关税“轰”一声全涨回，可能更狠！纯属延期爆炸！
表面停火，暗地捅刀：
美国阴招未停： 芯片、飞机设备禁令没撤！还炫耀34%“标准”关税法院支持。缓兵计！大棒随时落下！
中国没怂： 5月对美出口暴跌34.5%，但稀土王牌逼美国回来谈，够硬！

#加密圆桌讨论
加密圆桌讨论通常指围绕加密技术、加密货币、数据加密应用等话题展开的交流研讨。参与者可能涉及技术专家、行业从业者、投资者等，议题可能包括区块链加密原理、隐私保护技术、加密货币监管趋势、企业数据加密方案等

As of June 12, 2025, the price of Ethereum (ETH) is approximately $2760.08, down about 0.02% from the previous trading day.

⸻

📈 Market Overview

ETH broke through a key resistance level on June 11, with the price reaching as high as $2834.86, marking a new high in 15 weeks. This increase was mainly driven by the following factors: 
• US CPI data below expectations: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed slower growth, enhancing market expectations for a slowdown in interest rate hikes, which increased the attractiveness of risk assets.
• US-China trade agreement draft: Trump announced that “an agreement with China has been reached,” and the market is optimistic about the improvement in US-China trade relations, boosting investor confidence.
• Institutional demand rebounding: Increased demand for ETH from institutional investors has driven the price up.

Additionally, an Ethereum whale opened a leveraged long position of $11 million when the ETH price rose to around $2850, showing confidence in further increases for ETH. 

⸻

🔍 Technical Analysis
• Support level: The current support level for ETH is around $2750.
• Resistance level: The next key resistance level is at $2850; breaking this level may further drive the price up.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is around 70, close to the overbought area, which may indicate a price correction in the short term.

⸻

📊 Market Sentiment

Overall market sentiment is bullish, with increased participation from institutional investors, which may drive the ETH price up further. However, short-term attention should be paid to changes in technical indicators to avoid market volatility due to excessive optimism.

⸻

🧭 Outlook

If ETH breaks through the resistance level of $2850, it may challenge the psychological barrier of $3000. However, considering the current RSI level, a correction may occur in the short term, so investors should operate cautiously and pay attention to market dynamics.

From the perspective of Ethereum on the four-hour chart, the trend has clearly formed a head and shoulders pattern, as the market has paused here without continuing to rise, forming the head and shoulders pattern. Combining MACD and KDJ, the market is about to move with a golden cross, while KDJ has already turned downwards.
2690-2720 gap looking down to the 2630-2560 position.

$ETH 以太坊四小时来看趋势已经走出很明显的头肩顶的形态，因为这里行情停顿了没有继续往上走，走出了头肩顶的形态。结合MACD以及kdj来看行情这波金叉马上走势，kdj已经拐头向下开口。级别越大的形态那么行情概率越大以及空间越多。四小时如果是打破了2800的位置就不会形成头肩顶，那么这里稳住没有往上走，这里大概率要开始回调下落了。2690-2720孔 下看2630-2560位置

#纳斯达克加密ETF扩容
Think about a few years ago, traditional financial institutions scoffed at cryptocurrencies, considering them a 'Ponzi scheme.' And now? Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have entered the market, rushing to issue Bitcoin spot ETFs. What does this indicate? It indicates that they have recognized the potential of cryptocurrencies and the demand from customers.
The advantage of ETFs lies in lowering the investment threshold. In the past, if you wanted to buy Bitcoin, you had to register for an exchange account, learn complex trading processes, and worry about the security of your private keys. Now, it’s much easier; you can buy Bitcoin ETFs directly in your brokerage account, just like purchasing stocks. Furthermore, ETFs offer greater transparency and stricter regulation, making them more reassuring for institutional investors.

#加密市场反弹 兄弟们看 ETH 这 1 小时 K 线，从 2379 直接暴冲到 2726，简直像火箭炸场！
MA7 和 MA30 直接玩 多头抱摔，短期均线跟打了鸡血的疯狗往上捅，这趋势里谁做空谁死！再看指标，RSI 三个周期飙到 83+，超买区被踩得稀碎，但牛市里 RSI 天天 90 + 都能涨，现在这点疯狂就是前菜！
MACD 更狠，DIF 和 DEA 金叉后直接劈叉，红柱跟火山喷发似的，这核动力引擎谁敢喊见顶？成交量暴增，资金跟饿狼抢肉似的往里冲，这哪是反弹，明明是 资金暴动！
现在就是强者恒强的剧本！均线托底、指标爆燃，趋势行情里 超买能更超买，当年牛市 RSI90 + 都连涨数月，这点疯狂只是开胃菜！
操作也简单：敢追的直接跟，止损放 2650，剩下交给市场，这波不跟回头拍断大腿；怂货就别碰，市场只奖励勇敢者，而我就是提前预判疯牛的猎人！
记住，加密市场里犹豫就败北、果断才能吃肉！跟上我在 K 线里撒野，吃最肥的肉、装最狠的 X！当然，止损是保命符，别让利润飞了又跳楼，但咱玩的，就是这份敢打敢冲的狠劲！