Current XRP price 2.1484 USDT, down 4% in 24 hours, RSI 32.53 close to oversold area, significant buy order pressure (buy-sell ratio 2.17x). Suggests short-term long position, entry point 2.1350, target 2.1550, stop-loss 2.1250, risk-reward ratio 2:1. Risk: if it breaks the support level 2.1260, it may accelerate the decline; position control 2%, avoid trading during low liquidity periods.
Technical analysis
1. Price status:
• Bollinger Band position 16.4% (lower edge 2.1266), close to oversold area, indicating rebound opportunity.
• MA200 (2.2178) deviation -3.13%, price below long-term moving average, bear market trend continues.
• Holding cost (2.2050) deviation -2.57%, holders are at a loss, increasing the risk of selling pressure.
2. Market strength and weakness:
• Volume analysis: 24-hour volume ratio 0.637 (below average), price fell by 4% with reduced volume, indicating weakening downward momentum and potential accumulation signal.
• Position change: 8h positions decreased by 1.93%, price fell by 1.91%, the simultaneous decline suggests capital outflow but no major players are involved.
• Smart money long-short ratio: rose to 1.9547, long positions slightly increased, but no significant news impact, market sentiment is neutral to bearish.
3. Key support and resistance:
• Support level: 2.1266 (Bollinger Band lower edge), strengthened at 2.1358-2.1250 (buyer liquidity aggregated at 372,866 USDT).
• Resistance levels: 2.1500 (recent selling area starting point), 2.1600 (selling area aggregated at 399,120 USDT).
• Buy-sell pressure: nearby buy orders 2.37M USDT > sell orders 2.25M USDT, but price drop is contradictory, beware of liquidity gap below 2.1250.
Market cycle analysis
Currently in the mid-bear market, price continues to decline, RSI oversold suggests a possible short-term rebound, but overall trend has not reversed.
Trading strategy
• Entry point: 2.1350 (aggressive, close to buyer liquidity area).
• Stop-loss point: 2.1250 (invalid if breaking support level).
• Target price: 2.1550 (resistance area).
• Risk-reward ratio: 2.0 (calculated based on Long direction: entry=2.1350, stop-loss=2.1250, take-profit=2.1550).
Risk warning
• Market risk: if the price breaks below support at 2.1260, it may continue to fall to 2.1000; net outflow of contracts -13.21m (24h), capital is weak.
• Strategy invalidation: key support 2.1260 breaks or macro events (such as regulatory news) require immediate stop-loss.
• Operation notes: single transaction risk ≤ total capital 2%; avoid low liquidity periods during the Asian session.
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