Original Author: Matrixport
Reprint: Daisy, Mars Finance
Last week (June 11 - June 16), due to geopolitical tensions, the market experienced extreme volatility, with BTC dropping and then quickly rebounding, showcasing resilience. From June 12 to 13, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, market risk-averse sentiment increased, with BTC dropping to a low of $102,664.31, a weekly maximum drop of 7%. However, BTC quickly rebounded, oscillating back in the $104,000 - $105,000 range. On the 16th, buoyed by favorable market news and continued inflows into BTC spot ETFs, BTC peaked at $107,715 and is currently stabilizing around $106,615. ETH's overall trend remained in sync with BTC, with a maximum weekly volatility of 15.35%, and the current price is around $2,576 (Binance, June 17, 15:20).
Last week, tensions escalated in the U.S.-Iran conflict, with all three major U.S. stock indices falling over 1%. On Monday this week, the situation eased, and U.S. stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq closing up 1.52%, and the S&P 500 returning above 6,000 points.
Market Interpretation
U.S. May CPI recedes, raising rate cut expectations.
The U.S. May CPI fell below market expectations, with core inflation indicators slowing for four consecutive months. CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, and core CPI monthly rate was only 0.1%, both lower than expected, indicating a weakening in inflation stickiness. After the data release, S&P 500 futures turned positive, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.1%, with the market raising the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 85%. Although the annualized core CPI is still above the 2% target, the decline in food prices and the yet-to-be-seen impact of tariffs leave room for the Fed's easing policy. Subsequent decisions may rely more on core PCE data. Trump publicly called for a rate cut, further strengthening market easing expectations. Overall, macroeconomic signals are relatively optimistic, and risk appetite has rebounded in the short term.
Middle Eastern situation escalates, global risk-averse sentiment rises, putting short-term pressure on the crypto market.
In mid-June, the intelligence war between Israel and Iran escalated into large-scale airstrikes, sharply increasing geopolitical risks. Gold broke through $3,400, and crude oil rose to around $90, putting pressure on global stock markets. The cryptocurrency market also fell in sync, with BTC dropping to around $103,000 on June 13, a 24-hour decline of 3.5%; ETH fell over 8%, SOL nearly 9.5%, and the CD20 index dropped 6.1%. The main reasons were the flow of risk-averse funds into gold and the dollar, a decline in local demand in Iran, and the sell-off of high-volatility assets. However, by Monday this week, the market had largely digested the impact of the geopolitical conflict, with BTC and ETH displaying strong resilience and rebounding quickly. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.94% and 1.5%, respectively, while gold fell 1.5%. Market attention is gradually shifting to the FOMC meeting and institutional developments in the cryptocurrency market.
(GENIUS Act) advances, bringing stablecoin regulation into a new phase.
Last week, the U.S. Senate supported the (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) with a vote of 68 to 30, marking substantial progress in stablecoin regulation. The act establishes a compliance framework and clarifies the legal status for dollar-pegged payment stablecoins, receiving broad bipartisan support. Supporters believe this framework will enhance transparency and promote the application of stablecoins in payments, while opponents worry that high thresholds may limit innovation and squeeze smaller issuers. If passed, mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT are expected to benefit directly, potentially further consolidating the market landscape, and legislative progress will also influence global digital asset regulation.
U.S. Senate advances (GENIUS Act), marking a milestone in stablecoin regulation.
Last week, the U.S. Senate supported the (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) with a vote of 68 to 30, entering full chamber debate, marking substantial progress in stablecoin regulation. The act establishes a compliance framework for dollar-pegged payment stablecoins and clarifies their legal status, achieving a rare bipartisan consensus. Supporters believe the GENIUS framework will enhance market transparency and promote stablecoin applications in payments. Opponents worry that high thresholds might limit innovation and squeeze smaller issuers. If passed, mainstream stablecoins such as USDC and USDT will directly benefit, potentially accelerating market consolidation. Legislative progress will also influence global digital asset regulation pathways.
Market Hotspot
Preliminary U.S.-China trade agreement reached, rare earths and tariffs become the focus of negotiation.
Last week, the U.S. and China reached a preliminary trade agreement, primarily involving China's commitment to pre-supply rare earth materials to the U.S. to alleviate pressure on U.S. industry supply chains in exchange for the U.S. setting export tariffs to China at 55% (with China maintaining 10% tariffs on the U.S.). Although the tariffs are lower than previously expected, they remain above historical averages, exerting pressure on both economies. Overall, the temporary easing does not change the high-risk negotiations and the main line of uncertainty.
JPMorgan's move into crypto payments and the 'JPMD' trademark sparks expectations for stablecoin innovation.
JPMorgan recently applied for the 'JPMD' trademark in the U.S., covering multiple crypto services including digital asset trading, payments, and clearing, which may pave the way for its own stablecoin and blockchain financial applications. Earlier reports indicated that JPMorgan and several other major banks are researching a joint launch of a dollar stablecoin to accelerate the efficiency of cross-border and everyday payments. Currently, JPM Coin has processed over $15 trillion in interbank blockchain payments.
Trump Media approved for $2.3 billion BTC reserve, personal annual earnings of $57.35 million in crypto income.
Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) received SEC approval this week for $2.3 billion in financing, planning to allocate most of the funds to BTC, aiming to become the third-largest corporate BTC holder globally. Concurrently, it was disclosed that Trump earned $57.35 million through his family crypto platform in 2024, surpassing his traditional business revenue. The company positions BTC as a 'core financial asset,' reinforcing its asset structure. Despite the company's active promotion of its crypto strategy, DJT's stock price has fallen 42% this year, with revenues significantly below losses, raising market doubts about its profitability model and valuation. Industry analysis indicates that the trend of listed companies allocating BTC is accelerating, and the associated volatility and risks deserve ongoing attention.
Circle's stock surged nearly 390% in ten days since its IPO, leading the mainstreaming of stablecoins.
Global leading stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) listed on the New York Stock Exchange on June 5, becoming the first stablecoin company to successfully IPO. On its first day of trading, Circle's stock price rose 168%, closing with a market cap exceeding $21 billion. As of now, Circle's stock price has accumulated a rise of nearly 390% in ten days, with the latest market cap approaching $36.7 billion. As the 'first stock of stablecoins,' Circle has completed compliant listing ahead of others, marking a significant event in the industry's legalization and capitalization.
