$BTC
Recently, even favorable news has made it hard for Bitcoin to rise.
Moreover, its trend has long since deviated from the previous four-year cycle.
Altcoin prices have fallen for six consecutive weeks; whether they can rebound depends on whether they can stop the decline in the coming weeks. Otherwise, they will continue to weaken.
Currently, it all hinges on the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies and the broader environment. However, some big players say that although some people have made money and left in the short term, long-term holders have not moved at all, and the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges is still decreasing.
There are many people accumulating at the price level of 93,000 to 98,000, so it is unlikely to drop further for now.
Looking at the technicals,
Bitcoin has held at 102,700, and next it will either push to previous highs or fluctuate between 106,000 and 108,000. The current market conditions are very similar to that wave of fluctuations in 2024, so it is advisable to avoid excessive trading.
What the market is most concerned about now is how the Federal Reserve will express its stance this week.
Everyone was originally hoping for two rate cuts in 2025. If the Federal Reserve says there can only be one cut, Bitcoin will likely drop;
If the expectation of two cuts is maintained, it might just hover in place. Additionally, oil prices have been rising sharply; if inflation follows suit, the Federal Reserve might be even less inclined to cut rates, leading to greater market volatility.
Overall, the market maintains a cautious attitude; it is advisable to control positions, reduce leveraged trading, and focus on the impact of Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical situations on market liquidity.
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