#FOMCMeeting

The June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting is underway, and here's the latest outlook:

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📌 What to Expect

No rate change: The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25 – 4.50 percent, as signaled by futures markets showing a ~99.9% probability of a hold .

Cautious stance: Despite easing inflation, FOMC officials remain wary of tariff-driven inflation and global uncertainties, preferring to watch incoming data before committing to rate cuts .

Updated projections ("dot plot"): The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections is expected to maintain a median Outlook for two rate cuts in 2025, likely signaling the first cut later this year, possibly September or December .

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🔍 Key Drivers to Watch

1. Inflation data: Recent CPI and PPI prints have been softer, but tariffs could reignite inflation—Fed officials are tracking price dynamics closely .

2. Labor market strength: Unemployment at ~4.2% with solid job gains support a steady policy for now .

3. Trade risks: Ongoing tariff tensions—especially with China and involving the U.S.—could delay rate cuts as the Fed remains cautious .

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⏰ Timeline

Decision release: June 18, 2025 at **2:00 PM ET (6:00 PM UTC)** .

Powell's press conference: Immediately following the rate decision—critical for signaling future monetary steps.

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📝 Summary

Rates will remain at 4.25–4.50% at this meeting.

The FOMC will maintain a cautious tone given trade-induced inflation risks.

Look for forward guidance on the timing of projected rate cuts; the dot plot should reaffirm the Fed expects cuts later in 2025.

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