#FOMCMeeting

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 17–18, 2025, is a key event where the Federal Reserve discusses U.S. monetary policy, including the federal funds rate, which is currently at 4.25%–4.50%. Here’s a summary based on available information:

- **Expectations**: The FOMC is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, with over a 60% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool. No rate cuts are anticipated for June, with markets pricing in potential cuts in September or later, possibly two quarter-point reductions by year-end.[](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)[](https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/banking/when-is-the-next-fed-meeting)[](https://x.com/Trade_The_News/status/1934884258209784103)

- **Economic Context**: The Fed is adopting a "wait-and-see" approach due to uncertainties around trade policies, particularly tariffs, and their impact on inflation and growth. Inflation remains slightly above the Fed’s 2% target, while the labor market is solid but showing signs of softening, with initial jobless claims at 248,000 for the week ending June 7. The FOMC is monitoring data closely, as recent reports suggest inflation is cooling but could rise due to tariffs.[](https://www.investopedia.com/federal-reserve-june-2025-fomc-meeting-preview-interest-rates-11754277)[](https://www.morningstar.com/economy/june-fomc-meeting-preview-how-long-will-fed-keep-waiting-rate-cuts)[](https://www.kiplinger.com/news/live/june-fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-2025)

- **Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)**: The June meeting includes an updated SEP, or "dot plot," which will provide insights into FOMC members’ expectations for interest rates, GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment through 2025 and beyond. Analysts expect a stagflationary outlook, with lower GDP growth projections (around 1.2% for Q4 2025) and higher inflation forecasts (core PCE at 3.0% for Q4 2025).[](https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/macroeconomics/fomc-meeting)[](