Market Game: Waiting for Signals from the Federal Reserve
The current cryptocurrency market is deeply trapped in a liquidity dilemma, with investors' eyes focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in July. The market generally expects no hopes for a rate cut this time; therefore, even if Chairman Powell conveys hawkish signals, the downside space for the market is relatively limited. The real eye of the storm lies in the subtle hints within his words regarding the future policy path—will it release the dovish shadow of an impending shift, or will it maintain a tough stance? This subtle difference in policy expectations will become the key fuse to ignite market sentiment.
The strategy of the main funds can be seen as a meticulously rehearsed psychological battle. Observing the recent tightness of Bitcoin prices at critical points reveals a glimpse: off-market funds are hesitant and waiting, while those trapped in the market choose to remain dormant. If a low-point sell-off occurs at this time, the significance of washing out floating funds outweighs the actual profit, akin to "swinging a knife to cut air." What the main players seek is to create volatility at more attractive high points to maximize the harvesting effect. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly reveals a tendency for easing, the main players will take advantage of the momentum to lift prices rapidly, leaving those who missed the opportunity lamenting.
In this constrained liquidity environment, the core strategy of the main funds is clear: to support Bitcoin as the market benchmark. Its deeper meaning is to attract off-market attention and guide incremental funds into the market. Once the funds surge in, those altcoins that lack fundamental support and rise merely by following the trend will easily become sacrifices for the main players to "bleed and replenish," facing relentless selling pressure. Maintaining Bitcoin at relatively high levels for oscillation is indeed an excellent choice for the main players—there's no need to launch a strong assault on previous highs, which would consume ammunition, nor is there a need to fall sharply and cause panic; they just need to maneuver funds calmly amidst the tug-of-war at high levels, keeping a steady rhythm.
The short-term pattern is already clear: Bitcoin finds it difficult to break previous highs, nor does it have the strength to plunge deeply. The market will repeatedly play out the back-and-forth tug of war at high levels, with patience becoming the most precious quality for investors. Only by waiting for the moment when the Federal Reserve's substantial rate cut finally lands can we possibly welcome the "final sprint" meticulously planned by the main players, which will also signal the nearing end of the feast.
Are you trapped? When will you buy the dip? As always, if you're confused and helpless about what to do, leave a comment. I need fans, and you need references.
