Eth got hit hard — a sharp pullback, panic/liquidations likely got triggered, weak hands were flushed. The price is now probing zones that were touched months ago and may act as magnets.
On 4-hour, the structure is bearish (lower highs, lower lows). Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are showing oversold or weak strength (bearish bias persists).
Also note that the market sentiment (via longs/shorts bias) seems stretched: many are shorting, which might set up a short squeeze if bulls defend for a bounce.
2. Key supports & resistance zones to watch (4H)
Here are the major levels that could act as turning points:
$3,900 – $3,833 (Immediate support zone) Being retested now. If this holds, bounce chances improve.
~$3,600 – $3,400 (Secondary / deeper support) If the near support fails, this is the fallback zone. Some TAs suggest a drop toward ~$3,450 range.
~$4,000 (Pivot / resistance flank) ETH is hovering around this psychological + structural pivot. If bulls want control, they’ll need to reclaim/consolidate above this zone.
~$4,700 – $5,000 (Major upside target / resistance cluster) If a reversal gains traction, bulls will aim here. But that’s not the immediate move.
Also, the ~$4,100–$4,200 band may act as a resistance zone in a bounce scenario (supply could exist there).
3. Possible price paths (scenarios)
Let’s walk through 2 (really 3) plausible paths ETH may take next.
Scenario A – Defensive bounce — “Hold & flip”
Eth defends $3,900–$3,833 zone, stops bleeding.
The bounce carries it up toward $4,100–$4,200 (resistance).
If bulls push through that, then $4,700+ becomes a target.
Key condition: bulls must reclaim and hold above $4,000 to shift momentum.
This is the “best case rescue” scenario for bulls.
Scenario B – Break & drop deeper
$3,833 gives way — sellers flow in.
Price falls toward $3,600–$3,400 region.
Sideways trade or bounce attempts from there.
If scenario B happens, any bounce up is likely weak unless there’s a strong catalyst.
Scenario C – Range chop / consolidation
Price gets stuck in a range, e.g. between ~$3,900 and ~$4,200.
Neither side takes full control immediately.
This is the “wound-healing” phase before the next big move.
4. What to watch for confirmation
To bias one scenario over another, these are your clues:
Volume on bounce: A strong bounce with good volume suggests bulls are stepping in. Weak rallies likely fail.
Close above resistance zones: For a trend shift, $ETH needs sustained closes above ~$4,100–$4,200.
Momentum divergences: If RSI or MACD begin showing bullish divergence while price is still falling, that signals weakening of the dump.
Support breaks with follow-through: If $3,900 breaks with speed, risk is high for deeper drop.
5. My lean & what I’d watch
Given the strength of the recent dump, I lean toward Scenario B as the more likely short-term path, unless bulls show up strongly.
So:
I will be cautious of longs right now.
I’ll watch how $ETH behaves around ~$3,900–$3,833. If that collapses decisively, the move down to ~$3,600+ becomes a favorite.
If a bounce happens, my target zone is ~$4,100–$4,200 (resistance) and I’ll see how it responds there.
Only after price convincingly reclaims $4,000+ (with volume) will I shift bias back toward possible upside.