Yesterday morning, news broke that over 30 American refueling planes collectively flew from the mainland to the Middle East... This is just a large refueling plane that turned on its transponder, so it can be seen by the outside world... Some combat aircraft do not turn on their transponders, so we don't know how many actually flew over...
At the same time, naval fleets have also been urgently dispatched to the Middle East...
You thought he was about to step down, right? Things should get chaotic, right? Oil prices should go up, right? Stock prices and cryptocurrency prices should collapse, right? But yesterday, it moved up 4000 points in a single direction from 104400 to 108800... Oil prices fell...
External interpretation: This is just a preventive measure to prevent the situation from escalating... And the Americans cannot support a big fight, generally leaning towards appeasement... Me: Oh, I see...
Okay, you thought he was going to calm things down...
Early this morning, Trump tweeted again urging to leave Tehran immediately... He himself did not attend the G7 and rushed back to the war room... At the same time, the old clock issued a warning to leave immediately...
Results dropped sharply... Me: Is this even possible???
However, you might think that the market is sliding softly now, but what if Trump wakes up and decides to soften his stance again, saying something about starting a new round of negotiations... Then the cryptocurrency price will go up again... Trump is unpredictable...
Similarly, Iran cannot predict... From a long-term perspective, if Iran continues to act so tough, it is highly likely to collapse (strategic depth is insufficient, industrial output is insufficient). Although Iran seems to be under pressure now, its industry is holding up. If this drags on, firing 100 small rockets at him every day, old Iran's ammunition will not hold up. If it can't hold up, it will get beaten... But old Iran can often soften up... It can't hold out for long...
So how do we operate in this geopolitical aspect? There's no way to operate... Both sides are unpredictable...
From the perspective of funds, it is actually quite fragmented now...
From on-chain data (Figure 1), since May, some wallets on-chain have been in a selling state... The peak was around May 27, cashing out 3.5 billion in one day... Since June, there have also been 3 instances of daily sales exceeding 1 billion...
But previously, it was mainly old wallets holding coins for over a year that were selling... Until yesterday when the single-day sales volume approached 2 billion, mainly from new wallets... This indicates that on-chain funds entering in the last 6 months and 3 months have also chosen to sell...
(But this indicator is actually a turnover indicator because with turnover, if there are sales, there must be buyers. These old on-chain wallets choosing to sell also means there are new wallets taking these goods.)
Combining with ETF, yesterday ETF inflows were again 400 million, Wall Street is aggressively buying... So old money is leaving, and new money is flooding in, which also seems to confirm the data above... Why are old on-chain wallets continuously selling while cryptocurrency prices remain strong? Because new money from ETFs is continuously entering to take over... Maintaining turnover...
Does this reflect the characteristics of recent times? That is to say, overall, it hasn't been going down; short-term funds are strong, and any drop can give you a short-term rebound... But this buying pressure is not enough to break new highs (or as it approaches new highs, selling pressure comes in strongly), so every time it reaches 110,000, it softens...
It's easy to say, but actually doing it is very difficult...
Looking further at the technical aspect... Currently, the order flow support is at 105000... Resistance is at 109000 and 110000...
From the perspective of liquidation liquidity... There is a wave around 105500 within 3 days (liquidation target), the nearest liquidation gap within 3 days is at 105000 (support after liquidation). If it goes lower, we need to look at the weekly liquidation concentration area of 104000~103000 (a large amount of liquidity has accumulated here, also a liquidation target).
So low long positions around 105500-105000 can be entered... But the stop loss is particularly wide... If 105000 doesn't hold, we will need to acquire liquidity at 104000... However, last week's MSTR cost was again around 104000... So they will also buy and support here...
So going down, 103800 is also a liquidity zone + previous low support. 102800 is also previous low support + liquidity gap... We can't break 102800 and then run away, right...
So, either enter at each point with a narrow stop loss, if it breaks, run to the next one... If it doesn't break, just take a small profit and leave... Or gradually enter with a small position and take a longer cycle...
Or maybe just don't do it... This week will be very difficult... There is also FOMC tomorrow midnight...
