Self-stable profitable trading system formed!
7 Iron Laws of Fool-Style Coin Trading:
1. Wait and see sideways, and move again when the market changes
When the price fluctuates in a 3% range for more than 72 hours, use 30% of the position to trial and error. Add to the position after breaking through the key resistance level (such as the 20-day moving average) to avoid blindly copying the bottom and escaping the top.
2. Don't linger in popular spots, positions need to be rotated
Use the "Hot Spot Thermometer" indicator to monitor: When a certain currency rises by more than 50% in a single day and the mention volume on social media surges, clear the position in the early morning of the next day. Historical data shows that the probability of callback for this type of currency within 72 hours is 83%.
3. Jump high and rise sharply, hold steady and don't let go
When an "island reversal" pattern appears (the price jumps high and opens and the trading volume is magnified by more than 3 times), firmly hold the position until the RSI indicator is overbought (>80) and then take profit in batches. During the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade in 2024, this strategy helped me win 127% of the profit.
4. Huge Yang line, leave the market at the end of the day
Regardless of whether it is high or low, when the single-day trading volume breaks through 2 times the 60-day average volume, clear the position before 14:50. After the Dogecoin Musk incident in 2023, this strategy allowed me to avoid a 38% retracement.
5. Buy Yin online and sell Yang offline
Take the 55-day moving average as the line of life and death: buy Yin lines (decline <2%) above the line, and sell Yang lines (increase > 3%) below the line. Combined with the MACD golden cross signal, the winning rate can be increased to 68%.
6. Don't sell if it doesn't rise, don't buy if it doesn't dive
Set a dynamic take profit: When the price falls below the lowest price of the last 3 K-lines, close the position immediately. During the BNB ecological outbreak in 2024, this method earned 42% more profit.
7. Prepare before buying, enter less
Use the "pyramid position building method": the first position building does not exceed 20%, add 10% to the position for every 5% drop, and reduce the position by 3% rebound. This strategy can reduce the average cost by 15-20%.
Choice of trading time
1. Method of increasing positions
Equal allocation of position increases: that is, each time a position is established, the position allocation is the same, neither increasing nor decreasing.
Pyramid position increase: that is, each time a position is established, it is smaller than the position of the last position that has been established (when the position is not closed). This situation is often used for trend-following position increases.
Inverted pyramid position increase: that is, each time a position is established, it is larger than the position of the last position that has been established (when the position is not closed).
2. Use in different trends
Trend trading: mainly uses equal allocation of position increases and pyramid position increases; multiple position building within the plan can use inverted pyramid position increases based on evidence.
Counter-trend trading: short-term trading, no position increase method is used, only one-time position building; medium-term trading, appropriate position increases can be made according to short-term trend-following trading, but the position increase method can only use pyramid position increases.
Sideways trend trading: Before the sideways range is broken, no position increase method is used, only one-time position building; after the sideways range is broken, equal allocation of position increases and inverted pyramid position increase methods can be used.
Choice of trading time
1. Trading time that is easy to lose money:
2. Choice of trading hours
Friday: Friday's market is the most unpredictable.
Holidays: At this time, the trading volume is very small, especially the holidays in the United States and the United Kingdom have a great impact on the market. Many banks and institutional investors do not participate in trading.
The market may fluctuate very little, and there is also the possibility that the market will be amplified due to the small trading volume. The exchange rate may rise or fall sharply in the short term, so it is also difficult to grasp.
News, data: Before the release of data or news, it is difficult for us to predict the direction of price movement. If we rashly trade before we have a good understanding of the corresponding methods, the result may be painful.
2. Choice of trading hours
During this period, there are many important European and American data releases and news events, which is the trading time with the greatest market fluctuations and the most participants, and it is also the best trading time.
For Chinese people, even if they cannot seize the afternoon trading due to work, they can also trade during the overlapping period of Europe and the United States.
Of course, if the job is special and you can only trade during inactive trading hours, you must also adhere to discipline and focus on studying the market's operating rules during these special hours.
Trading discipline is particularly important. I believe you will no longer make orders at will. Knowing how to enter the market, how to close positions, and how to control positions, your profit level will definitely improve.
But trading is not just about knowing the trading rules. Many times, trading is against human nature. Many people have very good trading strategies and trading rules, but they cannot strictly execute them due to human weaknesses, so it is difficult to enter the ranks of masters.
What trading masters are really good at is not having a unique trading rule, but being able to strictly execute the rules they have formulated.
Friends who want to play short-term in the currency circle should pay attention to three principles:
1. Gold standard as the principle
The first thing is that you must take the gold standard as the principle. Short-term is definitely not hoarding coins. The profit on the gold standard is the first standard you need to consider whether to sell. If you earn more than 10% in the short term, then you can consider starting to protect your capital. If you earn 20% in the short term, then you should clear your position and return to your capital when it retraces to 10% of the profit. If you earn 30% in the short term, then you must sell unconditionally when it retraces 15%. This principle is to judge entirely by the profit rate, without considering any technical aspects or any news. What is the second principle?
2. Capital protection principle
The second principle is the principle of capital protection. No matter what kind of cryptocurrency you buy, when it gradually loses money and falls to 15%, you should cut your losses and leave the market to protect yourself. Personally, I think that 15% is a more appropriate recovery suggestion. Of course, you can also adjust it according to your own situation, such as setting it to 20%, 10%, or 5%. But remember that stop loss must be set in short-term operations, otherwise you will lose all your principal. Cryptocurrency investment is a very high-risk investment, especially short-term operations. In a market with unlimited ups and downs, you are likely to lose all your principal. So remember to only invest with the amount of loss you can afford in short-term operations.
3. Build positions in batches
The third principle is to build positions in batches and never have a full position. What is building positions in batches? Many people will buy all their chips in one go, and the correct way is to sell while rising in the process of rising, and encode while falling in the process of falling, so that you can choose your own chips at a low level, and in the process of rising, you can only earn back your profits and principal, and in this process, you will never have a full position. You should always leave 10%~20% of your position to prepare for a black swan market, when the extreme pin insertion, you can buy your own cost at a lower position, but remember that you can never buy at the lowest point and never sell at the highest point.
Ways to avoid losing money in currency circle investment:
Many friends have two states after losing money in currency circle investment:
First, it is a very irresponsible attitude towards money. After losing money, I still comfort myself, thinking that money is an external thing. If you are unlucky, it will be gone. I treat investing such a professional thing completely relying on luck, and I don't have a real understanding and respect for money.
Second, after losing money, I never thought about why I lost money, and I didn't even summarize the reasons for losing money, so I continued to make the same mistakes, running hard on the wrong road, going against the correct goal, and getting farther and farther away.
So in fact, losing money is not the worst thing. The worst thing is that you don't know how you lost money! Because you can't avoid the reasons for losing money, you will keep losing money. Do you agree?
Let me tell you about the important knowledge of (Fibonacci practical combat method)
I have theoretically derived such knowledge for you (Fibonacci practical combat method), (some people must have heard of it, but there should be more people who have not heard of it). I hope everyone can learn more knowledge of the currency circle, and I also hope that all the knowledge I have taught can help you and make your investment road prosperous!
1. In an upward trend, the resistance level means that the upward momentum will pause here, but sooner or later it will be crossed upward; while in a downward trend, the support level is not enough to resist the market's decline for a long time, but at least it can temporarily frustrate it.
If the upward trend is to continue, each successive low point (support level) must be higher than the previous low point, and each successive high point (resistance level) must also be higher than the previous high point.
2. Reveals buying and selling opportunities. Double-line, medium-term, and long-term moving averages intersect when the trend changes, sending buy and sell signals, divided into golden crosses and death crosses. When the double-line average breaks through the medium and long-term average from the bottom up, it is a golden cross, which is a buy signal; when the double-line average breaks through the medium and long-term average from the top down, it is a death cross, which is a sell signal. As shown in the figure below:
BTC 6-hour K-line chart, when the 7-day moving average crosses the 30-day moving average upward, it is a golden cross and a buy signal; when the 7-day moving average crosses the 30-day moving average downward, it is a death cross and a sell signal.
3. Several moving average forms:
1. Moving average adhesion
Moving average adhesion refers to the long-term horizontal consolidation of prices or indices, and multiple moving averages are intertwined and entangled together. Moving average adhesion can appear at any position in the trend, and is a relatively common type of moving average technical form in the process of K-line bottoming, adjusting, topping, and rebounding.
2. Moving average divergence
The phenomenon of moving average divergence can often be encountered in actual operation. It is very helpful for grasping short-term opportunities. The so-called moving average divergence refers to two situations:
[1] When the price falls to the bottom and then rises from the bottom, the running direction of the medium and long-term moving average is generally downward. After the price breaks through a moving average, the running direction of the price is "intersecting" and opposite to the direction of the broken moving average, which is moving average divergence.
[2] When the price rises to the top and then falls rapidly, the running direction of the medium and long-term moving average is still upward. When the price quickly breaks through a medium and long-term moving average, the direction of the price is downward, but the direction of the broken moving average is upward, and the direction of the price and the broken moving average is also "intersecting" and opposite, which is also the phenomenon of moving average divergence.
4. Double-line combination to buy in, hold and sell out, practical application skills
Double-line combination is mostly composed of a short-term moving average as a quantitative line and a medium-term moving average with a shorter cycle as a qualitative line. The sensitivity of the double-line combination is relatively good, and it is suitable for band operations in a unilateral market, with obvious advantages. However, in a volatile market, the buying and selling signals are too frequent, and there are often loss-making operations of selling low and buying high. In a volatile market, it is recommended to use support and resistance levels for operations. For example, when the K-line is in "box oscillation", the support level of the lower rail of the box is a buying point, and the resistance level of the upper rail of the box is a selling point.
(1) The qualitative line goes up, the K-line breaks through the qualitative line upward, indicating that the medium-term trend is towards
Ethereum (ETH) 3-hour K-line chart, the K-line first broke through the quantitative line with a large Yang line at the bottom, but because the price is below the qualitative line, it is not a buying point and does not need to be paid attention to.
Subsequently, the K-line stepped back and stopped falling, and broke through the qualitative line for the second time. At this time, the qualitative line has begun to go up, and the K-line has been running above the qualitative line after stepping back, a buy signal.
As shown in the figure below:
(2) The quantitative line crosses the qualitative line to form a golden cross, the market outlook is bullish, buy.
Ethereum (ETH) 3-hour K-line chart, the K-line once fell below the qualitative line before long. Soon, the K-line stopped falling and rebounded, breaking through the qualitative line upward. The quantitative line also turned upward, and crossed the qualitative line to form a golden cross, a bullish signal, buy.
When the qualitative line goes up, the place where the K-line breaks through the qualitative line upward is also a buy-in point. Compared with the golden cross buy-in point, the former is more aggressive.
As shown in the figure below:
(3) The K-line falls, and rebounds after encountering the support of the qualitative line going up, buy.
H currency (HT) daily chart, the K-line relies on the qualitative line to go up, and the moving average technical form of climbing uphill is a very important holding stage. During this period, the K-line adjusted many times, and all rebounded after encountering the support of the qualitative line. Traders can enter the market to buy or add to their positions. The buy-in point can be selected at the position where the quantitative line is broken upward.
As shown in the figure below:
(4) Qualitative online, K-line breaks through the quantitative line in the direction of the qualitative online direction, buy.
Above the qualitative line, the K-line breaks through the quantitative line upward, which mostly indicates that the K-line has entered a short-term strong period, and some will accelerate the rise.
As shown in the figure above:
BTC 3-hour K-line chart, with the support of the qualitative line going up, after the K-line breaks through the quantitative line twice, there is an accelerated upward trend, indicating that breaking through the quantitative line upward is a better entry point, and traders can enter the market to buy or add to their positions.
(5) When the double-line is in a bullish arrangement, the position should be reduced when the K-line falls below the quantitative line; when the K-line falls below the qualitative line, and the qualitative line is flat or has turned downward, clear the position and sell.
The ultimate truth of trader mentality: the essence of making money is "anti-human"
Remember: the currency circle is a "game where a few people make money", and the few people are doing "anti-human" things --
Be fearful when others are greedy (reduce positions when the price is too high), and be greedy when others are fearful (buy in batches when there is a sharp drop);
Don't be inflated when you make money, don't be discouraged when you lose money, and treat each transaction as a "probability game" rather than a "life and death gamble".
Finally, I will give you a mental method:
"A good trader is not smarter than others, but better at controlling stupidity than others."
From today onwards, treat "mindset management" as a daily compulsory course -- when your mindset can withstand 3 sharp drops without collapsing, and withstand 2 sharp rises without drifting, you have already won 80% of retail investors!$SPK $STRAX #美联储FOMC会议 #币安HODLer空投SPK
