Probability of Dogecoin Short-Term Recovery Increases as BTC Surpasses $106,000
Dogecoin Distribution Phase, Despite Negative MVRV, Shows Weak Bullish Conviction
Dogecoin (DOGE) recently faced a setback when it was rejected strongly at the key resistance level of $0.20. DOGE then dropped to a local bottom of $0.17. Earlier this week, Bitcoin (BTC) made a strong recovery from $105,600 to $108,400, up 2.72% at press time.
While the rally may continue, the macro backdrop remains bleak, just like last week. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show no signs of abating. Amid such a bleak backdrop, the price action of the leading memecoin has yet to show any signs of a bearish reversal for long-term investors.
The latest report from TinTucBitcoin shows the state of expectation in the cryptocurrency system. The altcoin perpetuals market seems to be accumulating before a big move. About 70% of altcoins recorded strong Long positions, large-cap assets also had 60% of traders leaning Long, expecting a strong recovery wave after a large-scale liquidation.
Should DOGE traders switch to bullish thinking?
Dogecoin remains bearish for investors
According to a report on X, expert Ali Martinez commented that the TD Sequential indicator has sent consecutive buy signals on Dogecoin's 12-hour chart. However, as analyzed earlier, DOGE's long-term bias (HTF) remains clearly bearish.
The increased selling pressure on the OBV indicator, the negative momentum from the RSI, and the negative technical pattern make it extremely difficult for DOGE to break above the $0.20 mark.
Source: Santiment
Distribution phase, rising on-chain volatility and MVRV alert
Observing the behavior of DOGE holders with a token lifespan of less than six months suggests that the cryptocurrency is in a distribution phase. The Mean Coin Age indicator, which measures the average age of tokens residing in wallets, has been falling for five consecutive weeks.
This decline reflects DOGE being moved out of holding addresses, likely for closing purposes. Additionally, dormant circulation has surged over the past month, confirming the robust on-chain activity.
Additionally, the 180-day MVRV ratio remains negative, indicating that the top memecoin is in a distribution phase and lacks sustainable upside momentum.
Should Traders Be Optimistic About DOGE?
This is a rather worrying signal for medium- to long-term investors. While the TD Sequential indicator and Bitcoin’s strong bounce may encourage traders to try to open long positions, holders should still be extremely cautious given the market volatility and distribution pressure that exists with DOGE.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/dogecoin-but-pha-nho-lan-song-bitcoin/
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