#美联储FOMC会议
According to the latest information as of June 17, 2025, the monetary policy dynamics and meeting highlights of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) can be summarized as follows:
1. Interest Rate Policy and Current Position
- Pause in Rate Hikes: The Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.0%-5.25% during the June meeting, marking the first pause since the rate hike cycle began in March 2022, after 10 consecutive rate increases totaling 500 basis points.
- Signals of Policy Shift: Despite the pause in rate hikes, market attention has shifted to the potential path of rate cuts within the year. The dot plot from March and May indicated that most officials expect two rate cuts in 2025, but divisions emerged in the June meeting—11 out of 19 members supported at most one rate cut this year, while 8 supported two.
2. Economic Assessment and Inflation Risks
- Limited Progress on Inflation: The May CPI fell to 4% year-on-year, while core PCE inflation remained at 4.7%, far above the 2% target. The statement acknowledged that inflation had made 'moderate progress', but emphasized the need for more data to confirm the trend.
- Economic Uncertainty: The minutes of the meeting mentioned 'uncertainty' 19 times, including risks from Trump’s tariff policies and Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts raising oil prices. Officials generally view the economic outlook as 'exceptionally high', with inflation potentially proving more persistent than expected.
3. Dot Plot and Future Path
- Divergence in Rate Cut Expectations: The dot plot indicates that the median rate could fall to 3.75%-4% by the end of 2025 (corresponding to two rate cuts), but some members lean towards a more cautious pace. Institutions predict that if inflation rebounds, the number of rate cuts may decrease.
- Powell's Cautious Stance: Powell emphasized that 'there will be no preemptive rate cuts' and that data confirming sustained downward inflation is needed, with policy adjustments relying on employment, inflation, and international conditions.
4. Political and External Pressures
- Trump Pressure: Trump publicly called for a 1 percentage point rate cut and criticized Powell, but the Federal Reserve reiterated its decision-making independence, emphasizing data-driven decisions.
- Delayed Impact of Tariffs: Companies hoarding inventory in advance have caused a lag in the transmission of tariffs to inflation, which may push prices up in the future and complicate policy trade-offs.
5. Future Focus Areas
- Data Dependence: Subsequent employment, inflation (especially core PCE), and GDP growth are key. If inflation rebounds, it could delay rate cuts or even restart rate hikes.
- Dot Plot Adjustments: The September meeting will update economic forecasts, and if inflation or growth worsens, adjustments may be necessary.