#美国加征关税
The impact of the U.S. tariff increase on the virtual currency market exhibits both short-term and long-term duality, involving multiple dimensions such as macroeconomics, market sentiment, and industry structure. The following is a comprehensive analysis:
1. Short-term impact: Increased market volatility and decreased risk appetite
1. Price plummets and market panic
- After the announcement of tariff policies, the cryptocurrency market typically experiences severe fluctuations. For example, in February 2025, after Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, Bitcoin fell from $105,000 to $92,000 (a decline of 12%), Ethereum had a one-day drop of over 27%, and the total liquidation amount across the network reached $2.04 billion, with long positions accounting for 87%.
- Market risk-averse sentiment rises, with funds shifting to traditional safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar and gold, leading to the sell-off of high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
2. Liquidity pressure and chain reactions
- Declines in traditional markets (such as U.S. stocks) lead investors to liquidate cryptocurrency holdings to meet liquidity needs. For instance, in February 2025, the total market capitalization of the crypto market shrank by $300 billion overnight, mirroring the drop in the S&P 500 index.
- If policies are unexpectedly stringent, Bitcoin may drop to the $85,000 range, and altcoins could see declines of up to 30%.
3. Leverage trading and liquidation risks
- High-leverage traders suffer significant losses during severe fluctuations. In April 2025, ETH plummeted 30% in a single day, with the total liquidation amount across the network reaching $2.234 billion, of which ETH liquidations accounted for $60.9 billion.
2. Structural shocks to the cryptocurrency industry
1. Mining machine costs and supply chain pressure
- Tariffs increase the import costs of mining hardware (such as ASIC chips), leading to decreased profitability for mining machine manufacturers and producers. For example, China's semiconductor export controls have caused shortages in mining machines, and mining companies may relocate to areas less affected by trade wars.
- A decrease in hash power may threaten the security and transaction efficiency of the Bitcoin network.
2. Changes in exchanges and stablecoin markets
- Short-term trading volumes may rise due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, but in the long term, they face compliance pressures. For example, the U.S. may strengthen anti-money laundering and tax regulations, increasing operational costs for exchanges.
- Stablecoins (such as USDT) may become tools to circumvent capital controls, especially in regions with strict capital controls such as Asia and Latin America.
