Tomorrow, the great and powerful Fed will once again take the stage to... do nothing. It’s like calling the firefighters when the house has already burned to the ground, and they start a meeting: "Maybe we shouldn’t pour water? What if someone gets offended?"
Inflation? Fallen. Dead. Gone. Prices crawl like retirees in the morning queue for aspirin. The latest CPI data is 2.4% annually. That’s even lower than the IQ of the average economist from MSNBC. Nevertheless, our old friend Jerome Powell sits atop the economic Olympus and says: "Well, maybe we’ll wait a little longer... maybe a year or two...?"
"Dunce" on the throne
Donald Trump, who, as president again, watches this performance from the White House and says it as it is: "Powell is a dunce." His words, not mine. Although... okay, mine too. After all, we have the head of the Federal Reserve System here, who seems to still think that a high rate is like a diet: the longer you hold it, the better you look. But the economy is not a Victoria's Secret model. If you choke it for too long, no glamour will save it — everything will start to collapse: loans, the labor market, elections.
"We will force a decrease"
Trump has already hinted that if Jerome continues to play "passive resistance", he "will have to do something forcibly". It sounds like the beginning of a very bad HBO movie, but in reality — it’s just Trump-style politics: if you don’t listen, you’ll be replaced. Or, at the very least, threatened so that you start sweating even on 10-year bonds.
And the Fed is just meditating...
The Fed continues to do what it does best: wait. Wait for the "perfect moment", as if it’s a Tinder date with the economy. Meanwhile, the market is already crying, small businesses are suffocating, and ordinary Americans... who even thinks about them?
Fantasy or farce?
We are fed fairy tales: that rates are so high "for stability". But here’s the question: stability of what? The economy? Or perhaps the stability of the Fed, which is afraid to admit it has been pressing the brakes for too long? Or, worse, just doesn’t want Trump to look right — even in this.
So what about tomorrow?
The Fed will most likely leave rates unchanged. Everyone understands everything. It will be like the phrase from a former: "It’s not you, it’s me." And yes, rates will remain as they were. But patience — no.
So, what do we have:
• Inflation is like a broken candle at a birthday party: it’s gone out.
• Powell is like the brake in a truck full of bricks: stuck.
• Trump is at full speed, demanding a 1% cut, not an increase.
• The economy is in a stupor, waiting for a miracle that won’t happen. As long as Powell is in charge.
The question is simple:
If the patient has recovered, why continue treating him with a defibrillator?
If the Fed again doesn’t hear the market, the president, or reality itself — maybe Powell really is what Trump called him?
We’ll see tomorrow. For now — hold on tight. We are riding at a 4.5% rate, but the turn is already close.
