#美联储FOMC会议 The Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates; what should crypto investors do?

According to CME's 'Fed Watch' tool:

  • 5The probability of a 25bp rate cut this month is only 2.7%.

  • The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in June is close to 70%.

  • The market generally expects that substantial rate cuts may not occur until September or even November.

What does this mean?

Before high inflation is truly brought under control, the Fed is not eager to 'let go,' and the market's originally expected liquidity easing window will be delayed again.

💡 So the question arises: how should we respond?

① For crypto investors.

"The cryptocurrency market is not an island; it also feeds on the Fed's 'food.'"

  • The primary principle of position control: avoid high leverage, control floating profits and losses, especially during periods of high short-term volatility.

  • Pay attention to institutional on-chain behavior: changes in ETF holdings, fluctuations in BTC on-chain liquidity, and inflow/outflow trends in exchanges.

  • Focus on the 'true essential sectors': RWA, DePIN, AI, ReputationFi, which will attract more long-term capital attention.

  • Be cautious of 'non-fundamental' speculation.: If interest rate cuts are delayed, the liquidity foundation for meme and story coins will deteriorate.

✅ Reasonable Strategy:

Short-term trading, medium-term rotation, long-term stay in BTC + AI/RWA sectors.

② For overall risk asset allocators (including US stocks, ETFs, gold, etc.).


✅ If you lean towards 'conservative':

  • Strengthen cash flow positions (money market funds, short-term bonds).

  • Increase allocation to large-cap stable stocks (such as energy, consumption, healthcare).

  • Gold still has anti-inflation properties but needs to avoid risks of chasing prices at too high levels.


✅ If you lean towards 'growth':

  • Continuously track the turning point of the Fed's monetary policy (CPI & PCE are key indicators).

  • Timing the allocation to new economic sectors such as AI, cloud computing, and green energy.

  • You can gradually allocate to crypto ETFs or DeFi blue-chip assets, but be careful to diversify risks.

✳️ Summary: The first half of 2025 is a phase for 'patient allocation.'

The biggest enemy of the market is not the news, but 'failed expectations.'

Investment should not just chase trends, but see who can endure during 'calm times.'

In the current situation of unclear rate cuts, persistent inflation, and increased volatility, the truly valuable operation is:

  1. Optimize allocation structure (reduce leverage, increase liquidity).

  2. Identify trends in advance (the real driving logic of sectors like AI + RWA).

  3. Maintain good cash + cognitive reserves, and act decisively when the next wave of 'true opportunity' arrives.