The Battlefield of Ethereum
On one side is the rocket fuel of technological upgrades
On the other side is the fire extinguisher of regulation and leverage.
It just depends on which side ignites the fuse first.
News Aspect:
Three Fires and Two Buckets of Water
Upgrade Bonus (July Explosion Point):
Pectra hard fork countdown has begun; after going live in July, TPS will soar from 30 to 90, and Gas fees will drop to nearly zero. This is equivalent to equipping Ethereum with a supercar engine, especially beneficial for Layer 2 and institutional staking efficiency.
Capital Drain (ETF Continuous Infusion):
Spot ETF has seen a net inflow of $321 million for 12 consecutive days, with giants like BlackRock secretly bottom-fishing (holding costs between $3300-$3500). If staking ETFs are approved, ETH will become the first 'interest-bearing digital asset,' attracting long-term capital such as pension funds.
Regulatory Landmines (Short-term Maximum Risk):
The U.S. (CLARITY Act) will be reviewed in June; if ETH is classified as a security, it may trigger compliance sell-offs. The SEC's stance on staking rewards is wavering, and the short-term black swan has not been resolved.
Technical Aspect: 2780 is the critical line for bulls and bears.
Current Position: 2605 is stuck between the 20-day moving average and crucial resistance at 2700, MACD golden cross but insufficient volume, Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and a trend change is imminent.
Bull-Bear Covert War:
Bullish Bottom Line: 2380-2400 has tested the bottom three times without breaking, and whales are accumulating below 2400.
Bearish Killer Move: Massive sell pressure at 2700, and falling below 2380 will trigger a $2300 options gamma squeeze + on-chain $1.2 billion leveraged long liquidations.
Operation Summary: Focus on two trigger points.
Breakout Long: Accumulate on a stable volume at 2680, target 2850-3000.
Breakdown Short: Short if it falls below 2380, target 2200-2000.
Cautious Flow: Watching around 2600, waiting to ambush a swing before the Pectra upgrade.
