Bitcoin surged and then retreated!
Keep a close eye on the 105500 defense line before the Federal Reserve decision.
News determines direction.
A bull that charges too fiercely.
You also need to stop and catch your breath!
News front: Two major storm centers, intense bull-bear contest.
The Federal Reserve's tone tonight: Although the interest rate decision on June 18 is 99% likely to remain unchanged, if hawkish signals are released, it may trigger risk-off selling pressure; conversely, if it hints at easing within the year, it will become fuel for bulls.
Middle East turmoil: The Iran-Israel conflict escalates, global risk assets are under pressure, BTC's correlation with US stocks is increasing, beware of black swan events.
Undercurrents in the blockchain: Whales have been 'unusually quiet' recently, but demand for bullish options from institutions has surged, indicating that large funds are betting on a short-term breakthrough.
Technical aspect: Golden cross charge meets resistance, critical position defense battle.
Bullish Ace: MACD golden cross + huge green bars, 4-hour moving averages in bullish arrangement; if it stabilizes above 106000, look for a breakthrough at 108000.
Bearish defense line: The upper Bollinger band and previous highs create a double pressure, the surge and retreat show heavy selling pressure; if it loses 105500, it may pull back to 104000.
Volume signal: OBV slowly rises, but before a breakout above 108181, beware of 'false breakout' traps.
Operation summary: Three strategies to cope with a volatile market.
Don't chase highs: There is significant pressure above 110000, short-term profits can be taken in batches.
Wait for a pullback: Focus on the support zone of 105500-106000, accumulate after stabilization.
Follow the breakout: If it breaks above 108181 with volume, go long with a target of 110000+; if it falls below 104000, stop loss and reverse.
