$Circle(CRCL)$ 【Circle's Valuation Paradox: How Far Can the Honeymoon Go?】
In just over ten days, Circle's stock price has skyrocketed from the IPO price of $31 to $165 during last night's trading, bringing its market value close to $37 billion, causing countless insiders to cry out, “The crypto bull market is in U.S. stocks.” But breaking down this frenzy, only two variables remain: interest rate curves and legislative rhythm.
On one hand, for every 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, Circle's revenue backbone—USDC reserve interest—will be effectively cut by $51.75 million; on the other hand, if the GENIUS Act can smoothly take effect, it will be the first time to write “100% U.S. Treasury reserves + monthly audits” into federal regulations, allowing Circle to officially transform into the U.S. version of a “stablecoin central bank” through a compliant framework. One curve rises, the other falls, determining whether the valuation goes up or plummets.
On-chain data is hot: USDC’s market share on Binance has risen from 10% at the end of last year to 20%, with trading volumes frequently hitting new highs, but there is still a long way to go to shake USDT's dominance. Circle's real valuation challenge lies in—when the interest spread dividend fades, can payments and tokenization take over to tell a new story? Otherwise, a 20 times PS seems more like a “speculative option” offered by the capital market.
If the bill passes smoothly and interest rate cuts are gentle, Circle may gradually gain a valuation premium as “financial infrastructure”; but if legislation encounters obstacles and interest spreads decline, the end-of-year lock-up period may evolve into a window for emotional realization, leading to increased valuation pressure.
How much longer can Circle walk in the high air? Does USDC really have a chance to overthrow USDT?
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Not investment advice.
