I. Outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision:

1. Interest rate decision expectations

The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% (upper limit at 4.5%). The main reasons include:

- Inflation persistence remains: Although inflation has slightly decreased recently, core PCE is still above the 2% target, and Trump's tariff policy (the pause period ending on July 8) may raise import costs, exacerbating inflation pressure.

- Labor market is weak but has not deteriorated: The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.6% in May, but did not trigger an emergency rate cut threshold.

- Geopolitical conflict disturbances: The Israel-Iran conflict pushed up oil prices (a 13% increase in a single day), increasing inflation uncertainty.

2. Focus on policy signals: 'Dot plot' and Powell's statements

- Whether the dot plot maintains expectations for two rate cuts: The March dot plot indicated two expected rate cuts in 2025 (September and December). If this dot plot is revised down to one or no cuts, it will be viewed as a hawkish bearish signal (strong dollar, pressure on risk assets); if it maintains two, it will be viewed as neutral to dovish (supporting risk sentiment).

- Powell's speaking tendency: May emphasize 'data dependence', but two points need to be cautious about:

- If tariffs or rising oil prices are mentioned as pushing up inflation → hawkish signal (bearish for stocks/cryptocurrencies);

- If the risk of rising unemployment is a concern → dovish hints (indicating an impending rate cut).

II. Rate cut timetable: September is the first key window, but there are uncertainties

- Market expectations: Interest rate futures indicate a probability of over 70% for a rate cut in September, with an expected two rate cuts for the year (totaling 50 basis points).

- Rate cut conditions:

✅ Inflation continues to cool (core PCE approaching 2.5%);

✅ Significant deterioration in employment (unemployment rate surpassing 4.8%);

✅ Geopolitical or economic 'black swan' shocks (e.g., escalation of Middle East conflict).

- Main risks:

❗ Trump pressuring to interfere with independence: If he strongly promotes a candidate for easing to succeed Powell (whose term ends in 2026), it may signal an early rate cut, but it is unlikely to be realized in the short term.

❗ July tariff imposition: If fully levied, inflation rebound may force the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts.

💥 III. Impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on cryptocurrencies: short-term bearish, potential structural opportunities in the long term

1. Short-term shock: Risk aversion dominates selling

- Historical performance: Following Israel's airstrike on Iran on June 13, Bitcoin plummeted 4% in a single day to $103,000, Ethereum dropped 9% to $2,500, and over $1.1 billion was liquidated across the network.

- Transmission mechanism:

→ Risk asset sell-off: Funds shift towards gold and US Treasuries for safety;

→ Leverage liquidation intensifies: Prior to the crash, Bitcoin's open contract leverage reached 25 times, leading to accelerated long position liquidations.

2. Future path predictions

- Pessimistic scenario (conflict escalation): Iran retaliates by attacking US military bases → BTC may drop to $92,000 (to fill the CME gap), and ETH may test the $2,400 liquidation line.

- Neutral scenario (limited conflict): BTC oscillates between $105,000 and $115,000, ETH supported at $2,500.

- Optimistic scenario (ceasefire agreement): BTC rebounds to $118,000, altcoins recover losses.

---

💎 IV. Comprehensive conclusion and strategy recommendations

1. Interest Rate Decision Impact:

- If the dot plot maintains two rate cuts → neutral to slightly bullish (short-term rebound in US stocks/cryptocurrencies);

- If the dot plot turns hawkish or Powell emphasizes inflation → bearish for the dollar (jump in dollar value, pressure on the crypto market).

2. Timing of rate cuts: The probability of a rate cut in September is highest, but attention must be paid to inflation data after the tariff imposition in July.

3. Cryptocurrency operational framework:

- Short-term: Focus on risk aversion, reduce leverage, and pay attention to the critical support for BTC at $102,000;

- Medium to long-term: If conflict drives 'de-dollarization' or demand for sanctions evasion, consider accumulating BTC and compliant stablecoin targets on dips.

> Historical experience shows that panic at the beginning of a geopolitical crisis is often excessive (e.g., BTC quickly recovering losses after the 2024 Iran missile attack), but this time, combined with a turning point in Federal Reserve policy, volatility may be significantly amplified.

#美联储利率决策即将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #美联储是否加息？ #美联储利率决议公布在即 #BTC走势分析