Almost five years after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed the first lawsuit against Ripple Labs on unregistered XRP sales, the high-profile legal battle is approaching a critical point. On June 12, 2025, both Ripple and the SEC filed a joint motion with Judge Analisa Torres to lift the decades-old injunction against Ripple and reduce its fine to half of the original amount, $50 million.

According to the latest motion, $50 million will be paid to the SEC as a civil penalty, and $75 million will be refunded to Ripple. Both sides claim that rewriting of the court judgment is justified by the so-called exceptional circumstances, such as the changing attitude to regulations, as well as the willingness of the parties to stop the expensive litigation.

However, not everyone is sure that the finish line is near. Pro-XRP attorney John Deaton, among others, cautions that the judge might hesitate to overturn a ruling she spent years carefully developing, particularly as the most recent filing has apparently not covered the most important aspects, including the inconsistent enforcement record of the SEC and why Ripple, specifically, should be granted relief.

Although certain legal analysts estimate the probability of passing at 70%, the final decision is not clear yet. If Judge Torres rejects the motion, the case will go back to the appeals court, which will extend a saga that has already defined the U.S. crypto regulation.

Over the years, XRP investors have been on an emotional rollercoaster, with their hopes rising every time there is a rumour of a settlement, and then crashing down when the legal proceedings go against them. The stakes are high with a possible decision on a joint motion to alter the judgment, cut fines, and to end the injunction. 

Is this the time Ripple comes out of regulatory chains, and XRP prices soar over the $5 mark or yet another heart-stopping postponement? Now, it is time to get into the drama, unpack the expert opinions, and see what this implies about the future of cryptocurrency.

The Expert Opinion

The X platform has turned into a battlefield of expert opinions, and some of the most important voices are Bill Morgan, who provides practical analysis. Morgan warned in a June 15, 2025 X post.

He wrote,  “Perhaps you should not hope for that. It only took 7 days for Judge Torres to reject the last joint motion to modify the judgment to reduce the fine and dissolve the injunction. Less than 7 days to decide the current joint motion may not be the best sign she will grant it.” His words resonate with a harsh reality; Torres has been quick to reject, and this could be an indication that the investors should lower their expectations of an approval soon.

However, when the official motion was introduced by both parties, Morgan stated that, “Just reading today’s Ripple and SEC joint motion to judge Torres over lunch. It does not become stronger and more impressive the more you read it. I just have a feeling she’s going to grant the motion anyway.” 

Besides Morgan, advocate Fred Rispoli, a vocal crypto commentator, also showed his disappointment over the latest motion in the June 13 post. He said, “In the newest saga of SEC v. Ripple, I don’t like this filing based on how obvious it was from Judge Torres’ last ruling that she was pissed. I recommended a long, detailed motion explaining the SEC’s failures in crypto regulation (with Commissioner declarations) and some apologies from Ripple for what it got tagged on.”

Rispoli’s critique highlights the filing’s shortcomings: its brevity and lack of contrition while offering a sliver of hope that Torres might clear her docket, tempered by low confidence. On the other side, a user who goes by the name “XRP Governor” on X post claims: “If approved, XRP could rise above $5 quickly.” Such optimism contrasts sharply with Morgan’s caution, painting a picture of a divided yet engaged community.

What If Scenarios For XRP vs. SEC Final Showdown?

So, what’s at play here? A positive decision would open the door for XRP, and analysts, such as Egrag Crypto, who predict a bullish rally to $7 or even more in the case of resumption of institutional sales. Lifting the injunction would be a regulatory thaw that would improve the IPO prospects of Ripple and give the crypto market a shot in the arm. However, a denial would extend the legal purgatory, which would destroy investor confidence and keep the price of XRP depressed.

Final Thoughts

The Ripple-SEC saga is a turning point in the regulation of cryptocurrencies. Though the joint motion is a promising sign of a solution, the history of rejections by Judge Torres and the doubts of the experts should be taken into consideration. Regardless of whether this is the regulatory emancipation of XRP or the latest episode in the longest-running legal saga in crypto, the ruling will certainly determine the future of the industry and establish key precedents in the enforcement of digital assets.



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