Original author: hitesh.eth
Original translation: Luffy, Foresight News
People's cognition of token issuance stems from evolutionary trends. In cryptocurrency, evolutionary trends often carry memories of past profits. What matters is not only what happened in the past but also the patterns that worked in the past. Therefore, most participants are not truly betting on fundamentals but are trying to recreate moments when they made money, subconsciously chasing historical highs by repeating the same behaviors.
In this market, there are participants from different time points:
Some are 'old players' from before 2018;
Most are a group that entered after 2020;
And there are new on-chain users who joined in the past three years.
These groups hold different cognitions about token issuance based on their evolutionary tendencies. This means their emotional interpretations and expectations of the same event are vastly different.
Participants before 2018 still pursue certainty, valuing roadmaps, token economics, practicality, and vision, hoping the team provides proof of work and actual progress, preferably with real income. They are the natives of ICOs, having witnessed the changes in cycles, leaning towards projects that are continuously evolving.
Participants after 2020 seek shortcuts, most still holding tokens 'fed' by KOLs. Their mindset is rooted in wishful thinking; they may not care about the substance of the project, only focused on whether someone will take over at a higher price. Patience is limited, expectations are limitless.
Recent newcomers on the chain seek free gains or quick stimulation. They act aggressively and swiftly, participating in all mining, following all trends, rushing for points, trying to hype every hotspot. But their expectations are too high; even earning a few thousand dollars feels small, ultimately leading to losses due to overtrading, with most trapped in it.
These three types of participants have three different 'psychological spaces,' which I call intersubjective spaces.
In cryptocurrency, intersubjectivity is not an abstract philosophical concept but a real existence. It refers to multiple people sharing a common belief, and this 'collective fiction' temporarily becomes reality through everyone's joint actions.
In the cryptocurrency field, these shared beliefs drive market development.
The thoughts of participants in these spaces are intersubjective. They recognize each other, hype each other, and maintain each other's viewpoints. This intersubjectivity creates a powerful group, a tribal force, acting as a positive or negative catalyst for the tokens.
Those in these intersubjective spaces participated early. They took on more risks, invested more energy, and believed in it before the story became reality.
When tokens are delivered, they invest emotion. They are not just holding tokens; they themselves become the tokens. They are the community. They become the spokespersons for the projects on social media, attracting attention, creating memes, drawing others in, and continually expanding the intersubjective space.
Hyperliquid is a typical case: early believers form a strong intersubjective community, gaining returns through large-scale airdrops, and the airdrops themselves become evidence that 'faith works,' further generating more faith, creating a cycle. Similar logic applies to Memecoins like BONK, WIF, POPCAT, all driven first by intersubjective energy.
In cryptocurrency, price is narrative, it is a leading indicator.
If the price rises, more people will join. But before that, someone needs to believe that the price will rise. This is where the intersubjective group plays a role.
They act before the outcome. They become the cause. These believers do not act in isolation; they collaborate interpersonally to act. They promote together, post together, fight together, and build a shared reality.
When others start to join, they see the price as confirmation. The price is no longer just a number but a signal. This signal loops, stimulating more confidence, more purchases, and more price action. This is reflexivity.
The reflexivity of cryptocurrency means that price influences beliefs, and beliefs in turn influence prices. It is a feedback loop, where perception and valuation mutually influence each other.
Specifically manifested as:
People buy tokens due to the price increase;
Price increases become proof of success;
Success translates into marketing material;
Marketing shapes narratives;
Narratives attract more buyers;
More buyers push prices further up.
But the 'cause' of price surges is far more complex than the 'effect':
The drive of Memcoin may stem from culture;
DeFi projects may stem from income;
AI agents may stem from technology.
Their commonality is: starting from the shared beliefs of a few, ending with the buying of the majority.
Those who enter in the reflexivity phase usually buy 'dreams' rather than logic; they become 'exit liquidity' for those entering in the intersubjective phase.
At this point, the game shows asymmetry.
Participants in the two phases (intersubjective phase and reflexivity phase) manipulate information, create narratives, distort facts, and expand beliefs to keep others aligned with their version of reality.
Over time, around the same symbol, multiple realities have formed. Each group's beliefs are slightly different. These are perceived realities, micro echo chambers of belief. Each group has different reasons for holding different views, expects different outcomes, and exits at different moments. These micro intersubjective spaces create turbulence, fear, greed, and often chaos.
Most people in these micro-realities will fall into extreme greed, forgetting their initial intentions for entry, only remembering potential losses. When the bubble bursts, they not only lose money but also faith, collapsing in spaces they once celebrated.
The true beneficiaries of token price discovery are those who coordinated early (shaping the token price through shared beliefs, behavioral resonance, and group collaboration). But even for them, they can only profit if the token price is sustained significantly above their expectations, allowing them to exit confidently.
Ultimately, price discovery is not a chart event but a coordination event. It is shaped by how humans perceive value, believe in stories, and synchronize actions with others.
So, you must always know:
Which stage you are in;
What kind of 'reality' are you participating in;
What kind of cognition do you hold when you believe the token will rise.
The clearer your awareness of your psychological foundation, the better results you can create for your positions.