Bitcoin hovers around $104K amid FOMC rate pause expectations and Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
Trump’s China deal excludes rare earths for military use, keeping geopolitical pressure high.
BTC whales and retail investors align in “hodl” mode, with price targets as high as $200K.
Bitcoin eyes FOMC shift as US-China trade tensions simmer, with Fed rate decision and rare earth export standoff shaping macro risk. Market braces for Powell speech and China tariff moves.
FED IN FOCUS: RATE PAUSE OR POLITICAL PIVOT
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 18 is the focal point for both crypto and traditional markets. Despite growing political pressure from President Donald Trump, especially following a preliminary US-China trade agreement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to announce a rate cut.
Prediction markets peg the chance of a rate cut at a mere 2%. Inflation remains stubborn, with May’s CPI data printing a 2.4% monthly rise and 2.9% annual growth. The economy shows resilience in manufacturing and employment, blunting arguments for easing. However, if Powell bends under political heat, it could unleash a wave of liquidity – a bullish trigger for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Adding to the mix, speculation about Powell’s job security has intensified. Trump’s critics claim Powell is too slow in easing policy, yet the president stated publicly that he won’t remove him before his term ends. Still, market jitters persist over Fed leadership stability.
BITCOIN DANCES ON MACRO TIGHTROPE
Ahead of the FOMC, Bitcoin has traded within a tight triangle pattern, consolidating between $102K and $107K. The price fell to $104,000 after a brief rally last week that was disrupted by geopolitical shocks, including renewed tension between Israel and Iran. Technical indicators present a mixed picture.
The Stochastic RSI dropped below the overbought zone, hinting at waning bullish momentum. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands show high volatility potential, with the BTC price recently testing the mid-band support. If the FOMC surprises with dovish commentary, Bitcoin may retest its recent all-time high of $112K and push toward $120K. A hawkish tone, however, could send it spiraling toward $100K or even $97,380.
Derivatives markets add another wrinkle. BTC perpetuals on Binance are trading at a discount to spot, suggesting heavy institutional hedging or arbitrage activity. While this could signal short-term weakness, analysts like Joao Wedson of Alphractal argue it sets the stage for a short squeeze if sentiment flips.
RARE EARTHS AND THE SHADOW OF CHINA
While markets await Powell’s speech, a separate macroeconomic flashpoint is emerging in the form of US-China trade tensions. Last week’s “handshake deal” in London offered limited relief, with Beijing agreeing to expedite export licenses for certain rare earths – but explicitly excluding those used in US military applications.
These magnets, such as samarium-based alloys, are crucial for weapons systems including fighter jets and missile guidance. China holds a near-monopoly on their production and processing, giving it significant leverage. In exchange, Beijing hinted at easing if Washington lifts AI chip curbs, though the US has denied any quid pro quo.
The unresolved rare earth issue adds a new dimension to ongoing tariff threats. The US may extend current tariffs by 90 days beyond the August 10 deadline. Trump has signaled a 55% tariff rate on Chinese goods, while China agreed to a 10% tariff on US imports. Analysts say a lasting resolution is unlikely within this window, especially with Trump’s priorities clashing with China’s strategic control of critical minerals.
RETAIL AND WHALES HOLD TIGHT
In a rare alignment, onchain data shows both Bitcoin whales and retail investors are holding rather than selling. According to CryptoQuant, inflows to Binance from both groups have dropped to cycle lows. This behavior is typically interpreted as a sign of confidence, suggesting investors expect macro catalysts – like the FOMC or trade breakthroughs – to tilt in Bitcoin’s favor.
Spot exchange reserves of Bitcoin continue to decline, with over 550,000 BTC withdrawn in the past year. This reduces selling pressure and enhances the odds of an eventual supply squeeze.
Even as prices consolidate, trader sentiment remains firmly bullish. Targets of $170K, $200K or even higher are common among BTC influencers, supported by technical structures like the Ascending Broadening Wedge. Meanwhile, 30 major indicators tracked by CoinGlass unanimously suggest: “Hold 100%.”
CONCLUSION: MACRO CATALYSTS SET THE STAGE
This week’s FOMC meeting could shape Bitcoin’s next major move. The decision to pause or pivot will signal how far politics has infiltrated monetary policy. Simultaneously, the unresolved rare earths standoff with China complicates the broader macro narrative, with trade and defense priorities increasingly overlapping.
In this volatile brew, Bitcoin stands at the crossroads of monetary uncertainty and geopolitical friction. Whether it breaks above $112K or slips back below $100K may depend less on code or consensus – and more on Powell’s podium and China’s mineral grip.
〈Bitcoin Eyes FOMC Shift as US-China Trade Tensions Simmer〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。
