I came across something recently that really got me thinking—and honestly, it's the kind of stuff that sounds like it came straight out of a sci-fi movie. But it’s real. Quantum computers. Yeah, those insanely powerful machines everyone’s been talking about for years are now edging closer to reality—and they could pose a serious threat to Bitcoin and the entire crypto world.
Let me break it down.
So, What’s the Big Deal?
The fear is pretty simple but huge: if a powerful enough quantum computer is built, it might be able to crack Bitcoin’s cryptography. That means opening wallets, changing transactions, and basically breaking the trust the entire blockchain is built on. Sounds crazy, but stay with me.
IBM’s 2029 Plan
IBM has been working on a quantum computer called Quantum Starling, and they’re aiming to release it by 2029. This won’t just be any quantum computer—it’ll be fault-tolerant, which means it won't crash every five seconds like current ones do. If they pull it off, it could be capable of handling tasks like breaking modern encryption. That’s not something to ignore.
Google’s Research Is Even More Alarming
In May 2025, Craig Gidney from Google published findings that shook the crypto world. Turns out, it would take 20x fewer quantum resources to break RSA encryption than we thought. Sure, Bitcoin doesn’t use RSA—it uses ECC (elliptic curve cryptography)—but even that isn’t safe. Gidney confirmed ECC could also be cracked using the Shor’s algorithm with under a million qubits. That’s crazy. He thinks it could be done in a week. Not in 2100—soon.
Some Say “Don’t Panic” (Yet)
Not everyone’s sounding the alarm though. Adam Back, a well-known name in the Bitcoin space and CEO of Blockstream, says the danger is still about 20 years away. But even he admits it's smart to start moving coins—especially the really old ones—to quantum-resistant addresses. So even the calm voices are still taking action.
The Most Serious Warning Yet
Then there's David Carvalho from Naoris Protocol, and he’s not sugar-coating anything. He believes Bitcoin could be hacked within 5 years if it doesn’t adapt fast. He even cites a BlackRock report that mentions quantum risks when applying for a Bitcoin ETF. And get this: around 30% of all Bitcoin is stored in vulnerable addresses. One breach could wipe out trust in the whole system.$BTC
Wait, There's More…
Investor Chamath Palihapitiya said at the end of 2024 that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing could be broken in just 2 to 5 years. All it would take is 8,000 quantum chips—like the ones Google is already making. Sure, scaling that kind of system isn’t easy, but still... it’s not impossible either.
Final Thoughts
Here’s what I’m left wondering: should Bitcoin developers start switching to post-quantum cryptography right now? Or is this still something that belongs in the "maybe one day" category?
The pace at which quantum computing is advancing is faster than most of us expected—and the big names in tech and finance are clearly paying attention. If even part of this plays out, the crypto world could change completely.
Let me know what you think—should we be worried, or is this all just early noise?