[16 Jun] BTC-USDT • 1-Hour Breakout – Priority Long after EMA-200 BreachSnapshot taken ~12:52 UTC+7
1️⃣ Why this breakout matters
Trend – Price has closed above both EMA-50 and EMA-200 (106 520 USDT > 105 481 & 106 092) → bullish bias confirmed.Volume – Breakout candle ~7.67 K BTC, ≈ 190 % of the 20-period average → strong buying pressure, no “fake” move.RSI-14 – Prints 67, still under 70 so momentum can expand further before becoming overbought.Bollinger Band Width (20 × 2σ) – Just widened to ~0.02 after a squeeze; volatility likely to increase.Stoch RSI-14 – %K ≈ %D ≈ 100 → extremely overbought, warning of a short pull-back.
ATR-14 – Around 446 USDT (≈ 0.42 %) → reference for stop-loss and target distance.
TL;DR
Price ripped through the EMA-200 with convincing volume, so bulls have the upper hand. A quick retest of EMA-200 is possible because Stoch RSI is overheated.
2️⃣ Trade plan (Long – main scenario)
Entry trigger
Wait for an H1 candle to close at or above 106 200 USDT (retest of EMA-200).That candle’s volume must be ≥ 130 % of the 20-period SMA (≈ ≥ 5.25 K BTC).
→ If volume is weak, skip the trade.
Order parameters
Limit buy: 106 050 USDTStop-loss: 105 500 USDT (-0.52 %)Take-profit: 107 600 USDT (+1.46 %)Risk : Reward: ≈ 1 : 2.8
Backup Short idea (defensive only)
Short is considered only if price drops back under EMA-200 (~106 100) with rising sell volume; first target 105 000 USDT. Trend bias remains Long, so treat this as a hedge, not a core plan.
3️⃣ Managing the position
No FOMO – Patience until both price and volume rules are met.Trail the stop once price breaks 107 000 USDT to lock in gains.Watch Stoch RSI – If a pull-back cools it below 20 and it curls up again, that’s a fresh momentum signal to add or re-enter.Macro catalysts – Keep an eye on FOMC events and ETF inflows; surprises can expand ATR beyond today’s calculation.
Trend – Price has closed above both EMA-50 and EMA-200 (106 520 USDT > 105 481 & 106 092) → bullish bias confirmed.Volume – Breakout candle ~7.67 K BTC, ≈ 190 % of the 20-period average → strong buying pressure, no “fake” move.RSI-14 – Prints 67, still under 70 so momentum can expand further before becoming overbought.Bollinger Band Width (20 × 2σ) – Just widened to ~0.02 after a squeeze; volatility likely to increase.Stoch RSI-14 – %K ≈ %D ≈ 100 → extremely overbought, warning of a short pull-back.
ATR-14 – Around 446 USDT (≈ 0.42 %) → reference for stop-loss and target distance.
TL;DR
Price ripped through the EMA-200 with convincing volume, so bulls have the upper hand. A quick retest of EMA-200 is possible because Stoch RSI is overheated.
2️⃣ Trade plan (Long – main scenario)
Entry trigger
Wait for an H1 candle to close at or above 106 200 USDT (retest of EMA-200).That candle’s volume must be ≥ 130 % of the 20-period SMA (≈ ≥ 5.25 K BTC).
→ If volume is weak, skip the trade.
Order parameters
Limit buy: 106 050 USDTStop-loss: 105 500 USDT (-0.52 %)Take-profit: 107 600 USDT (+1.46 %)Risk : Reward: ≈ 1 : 2.8
Backup Short idea (defensive only)
Short is considered only if price drops back under EMA-200 (~106 100) with rising sell volume; first target 105 000 USDT. Trend bias remains Long, so treat this as a hedge, not a core plan.
3️⃣ Managing the position
No FOMO – Patience until both price and volume rules are met.Trail the stop once price breaks 107 000 USDT to lock in gains.Watch Stoch RSI – If a pull-back cools it below 20 and it curls up again, that’s a fresh momentum signal to add or re-enter.Macro catalysts – Keep an eye on FOMC events and ETF inflows; surprises can expand ATR beyond today’s calculation.
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