1️⃣ Why this breakout matters

  • Trend – Price has closed above both EMA-50 and EMA-200 (106 520 USDT > 105 481 & 106 092) → bullish bias confirmed.

  • Volume – Breakout candle ~7.67 K BTC, ≈ 190 % of the 20-period average → strong buying pressure, no “fake” move.

  • RSI-14 – Prints 67, still under 70 so momentum can expand further before becoming overbought.

  • Bollinger Band Width (20 × 2σ) – Just widened to ~0.02 after a squeeze; volatility likely to increase.

  • Stoch RSI-14 – %K ≈ %D ≈ 100 → extremely overbought, warning of a short pull-back.

  • ATR-14 – Around 446 USDT (≈ 0.42 %) → reference for stop-loss and target distance.

TL;DR

Price ripped through the EMA-200 with convincing volume, so bulls have the upper hand. A quick retest of EMA-200 is possible because Stoch RSI is overheated.

2️⃣ Trade plan (Long – main scenario)

Entry trigger

  1. Wait for an H1 candle to close at or above 106 200 USDT (retest of EMA-200).

  2. That candle’s volume must be ≥ 130 % of the 20-period SMA (≈ ≥ 5.25 K BTC).

    → If volume is weak, skip the trade.

Order parameters

  • Limit buy: 106 050 USDT

  • Stop-loss: 105 500 USDT (-0.52 %)

  • Take-profit: 107 600 USDT (+1.46 %)

  • Risk : Reward: ≈ 1 : 2.8

Backup Short idea (defensive only)

Short is considered only if price drops back under EMA-200 (~106 100) with rising sell volume; first target 105 000 USDT. Trend bias remains Long, so treat this as a hedge, not a core plan.

3️⃣ Managing the position

  • No FOMO – Patience until both price and volume rules are met.

  • Trail the stop once price breaks 107 000 USDT to lock in gains.

  • Watch Stoch RSI – If a pull-back cools it below 20 and it curls up again, that’s a fresh momentum signal to add or re-enter.

  • Macro catalysts – Keep an eye on FOMC events and ETF inflows; surprises can expand ATR beyond today’s calculation.