As of June 16, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a volatile consolidation pattern, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range of $105,000 to $106,500. Below is the key trend analysis:

Technical Signals Divergence

Support and Resistance: Short-term support is concentrated at $104,200 to $103,150 (high trading volume area), with strong support at $101,200; resistance is at $106,000 to $107,000 (upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle and previous highs), and a breakout may test $108,400.

Indicator Contradictions: The MACD indicates bullish momentum dominance, but the KDJ death cross and RSI retreating to the neutral range (45-55) suggest short-term adjustment needs, with a bottom divergence on the 4-hour level and a golden cross on the 1-hour level interwoven, direction remains unclear.

Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Influences

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (June 18) is the focus, with market expectations for interest rate cuts cooling; if the policy leans hawkish, it may increase BTC selling pressure.

The situation in the Middle East (conflict between Israel and Iran) is disturbing market sentiment, with BTC being more sensitive to geopolitical risks than traditional assets, necessitating caution against sudden news-driven volatility.

On-chain Data and Fund Movements

Recent whale addresses have increased their holdings by 8,200 BTC, but there has also been old wallet selling and a net outflow of stablecoins on-chain, indicating a divergence between bulls and bears.

Institutional funds are continuously flowing in through ETFs (with a single-day inflow of $115 million), providing bottom support for the price, though retail participation is low, which may limit short-term upside potential.

Market Outlook: If BTC stabilizes above $107,000 or breaks through the symmetrical triangle, the target looks at $108,400 to $110,000; if it falls below $104,200, it may retrace to $101,200 or even test the psychological level of $100,000. It is recommended to operate within the range, focusing on breakout signals and macro event catalysts.