Analysis of the current situation Ripple vs SEC
1. What happened?
Joint motion (June 12, 2025): Ripple and SEC request the court to approve that of the $125 million penalties, $50 million will go to SEC, the rest back to Ripple, and to dismiss jurisdiction over institutional sales of XRP barrons.com+14cointelegraph.com+14bravenewcoin.com+14.
Judge Torres' decision (September 2024): XRP is not a security on secondary markets, but institutional sales still fall under jurisdiction.
Chances of successful resolution: According to experts, the probability is about 70%, but the judge requires more convincing arguments.
2. Possible outcomes and impact on XRP
✅ Ideal outcome — agreement and removal of all restrictions:
Positive signal to the market: XRP will receive a definitive “quality mark” and clarity.
Only $50 million fine (instead of $125 million).
Institutional sales can resume without legal restrictions.
📉 Standard adverse outcome — court denial:
Agreement rejected (as it was in May for procedural reasons) ainvest.com+14ccn.com+14dlnews.com+14sec.gov+4time.com+4dlnews.com+4.
Return of uncertainty, possible delays in the case.
XRP is fixed in the range of $2.10–2.30 with a risk of pullback.
