Personal opinion, for reference only
1. Overall Analysis
Recently, the price has been fluctuating around 105900, showing an overall weak fluctuation characteristic and is in a consolidation phase. The market rebound failed to effectively break through the important resistance level above (various moving averages acting as resistance), and the bearish trend has not completely changed, requiring close attention to the price's performance in the support and resistance zones.
In the short term: The price may continue to fluctuate and consolidate around 105900. In the short term, both bulls and bears are fiercely competing at this position. If it can break through the upper moving average resistance (especially EMA120), it may lead to further rebounds; otherwise, the price will test the previous low of 100372.26 for support.
In the medium term: EMA60 and EMA120 continue to pressure the price, and the overall trend has not escaped the downward range. From a pattern perspective, a recent head-and-shoulders pattern and a top division are emerging, suggesting that if the rebound fails, the downward trend may continue.
In the long term: Long-term moving averages continue to decline, and the medium to long-term overall trend is bearish. The current rebound is more of a consolidation after short-term moving average support, and it is still difficult to say that a trend reversal has occurred.
Recommendations:
Short-term trading strategy: The current price is in a consolidation phase; investors are advised to wait for further direction to become clear. Aggressive investors may attempt to go long with a light position after the price breaks above 105931.83 and stabilizes, but should pay attention to the important resistance at 110530.17, gradually reducing positions at highs. If the price falls back below 105931.83, consider a short position, setting the stop-loss above this level.
Medium-term strategy: Considering the trend is still bearish, if there is a pullback after a rebound, the price may retest the support level of 100372.26. It is recommended to cautiously build long positions in batches near the key support zone (close to 100372.26), but if the support fails, decisive stop-loss actions are necessary.
Risk control: Short-term fluctuations are intense, and strict profit and loss limits need to be set. After breaking through key resistance levels, it is advisable to closely monitor market sentiment (refer to RSI changes) and adjust positions in a timely manner to avoid pullback risks. Beware of significant adjustments near the overbought area.
Investors need to pay attention to external factors: It is necessary to observe the volume coordination and market news guidance, including macroeconomic data and policy orientation, as these may have significant impacts on short-term price volatility.
2. Technical Analysis
Candlestick Pattern: Recently, a red three soldiers pattern followed by a doji has appeared, reflecting a weakening short-term upward momentum.
MA: Short-term moving average (MA20) is consolidating horizontally and is close to the price, while medium to long-term moving averages (MA60, MA120) continue to decline, indicating an overall weak market fluctuation.
EMA: Short-term EMA (20) is attempting to rise, but EMA (120) still acts as a resistance, causing the market rebound to face obstacles.
MACD: The red bars are still present but shorter, with the fast and slow lines tending to be parallel, indicating an unclear market trend.
RSI: RSI1 is close to 70 but has not entered the overbought zone, indicating a short-term market bias towards strength but with a risk of pullback.