1. Overall Analysis
In recent times, the overall price has shown a trend of fluctuating decline, indicating that bearish forces dominate in the short term. From the interpretation of indicators such as MACD, EMA, and MA, the current market is in a short-term weak fluctuation, but the long-term trend has not been completely damaged.
In the short term, the market still has some downward pressure: the short-term candlestick pattern has formed a 'black three soldiers', combined with the death cross phenomenon of short-term EMA and MA lines, supporting the judgment of short-term decline. At the same time, the main MACD line and signal line maintain a bearish trend, indicating that bearish forces still dominate, posing relatively high risks.
In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether the key support levels stabilize: 107524 and lower at 100372.26 will be important support points; if broken, it may indicate an opening of downward space. If the price stabilizes at the support level and rebounds, attention should be paid to whether the trading volume and momentum indicators support further rises.
The long-term trend remains unbroken: although the short cycle exhibits prominent bearish structure, the EMA120 and MA120 show strong long-term bullish support. If the price retracement is limited, the long-term bullish trend can still provide a recovery foundation for the market.
Suggestion:
For investors inclined towards short-term operations, it is recommended to patiently wait for the market to approach support levels and observe rebound signals, avoiding blind bottom-fishing in the current bearish trend. The current phase is one of cautious observation.
For medium to long-term investors, attention can be paid to key support levels and the performance of long-term moving averages. If the price stabilizes, appropriate gradual position building can be considered; once the price breaks below the long-term moving averages, timely stop-loss measures should be taken to prevent risks.
If the price breaks above MA20 or rises above the key resistance of 109040 accompanied by strengthening bullish momentum, consideration can be given to appropriately increasing long positions, but strict take-profit and stop-loss points must be set.
In summary, the current operational strategy should be defensive, and short-term risks of decline should be treated with caution, waiting for clear signals before participating in long positions. Long-term investors can refer to important support levels and allocate positions according to their risk tolerance.
2. Technical Analysis
Candlestick pattern: The black three soldiers pattern appears in the last three candlesticks, indicating a possible continuation of the downward trend in the short term.
EMA: The short-term EMA is turning downwards, and the price is below EMA20, indicating a bearish bias.
MA: The short-term MA20 crosses below the MA60 forming a death cross, indicating a bearish signal in the short term.
MACD: DIF and DEA are below the zero axis, the histogram is overall red, indicating a bearish market domination.
3. Potential Buy and Sell Points
Buy point: 107524 USDT (approaching the recent low support level and below EMA20, indicating potential for a rebound)
Long position stop-loss point: 106769 USDT (breaking below the previous low support area confirms a continued weakening trend)
Sell point: 109274 USDT (approaching the MA60 resistance level, technical indicators show insufficient rebound strength)
Short position stop-loss point: 109540 USDT (if this price breaks through the key resistance level, a sustained upward trend may form)
