On June 15, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) continued to fluctuate in a consolidation pattern, with prices oscillating around the $104,000-$106,000 range. The intraday low reached $102,700 (impacted by the Middle East conflict), followed by a rebound to around $105,352. Key support and resistance levels indicate intense market tug-of-war:

Short-term Technical Analysis: Support levels are concentrated at $102,000-$104,300; a drop below may trigger nearly $1.7 billion in long liquidations. Resistance levels are at $105,500-$106,200, and a breakthrough could challenge the previous high of $108,000. MACD bottom divergence and RSI rebounding to 55 indicate a positive short-term momentum, but low trading volume limits upside potential.

Driving Factors:

Geopolitical Risk: The risk-averse sentiment triggered by the Israel-Iran conflict has been partially digested, with the market sentiment index rising to 60 (greed zone).

Capital Flow: Institutions continue to increase holdings, with a net inflow of $1.37 billion into Bitcoin ETFs in a single week; BlackRock's IBIT contributed over $1.1 billion, with whales simultaneously buying the dip.

Options Pressure: $3.5 billion in BTC options expire today, with the maximum pain point at $106,500, above the current price, which may exacerbate volatility.

Market Outlook: Short-term consolidation is expected, and breaking resistance will rely on easing Middle East tensions or dovish signals from the Federal Reserve; if the $104,000 support is lost, a retest of the $103,000 low may occur. In the long term, the decrease in miner selling pressure post-halving and favorable U.S. policies (such as Texas Bitcoin reserves) still support a $200,000 target. Investors are advised to manage their positions, monitor key breakout signals, and guard against geopolitical and policy black swan risks.