📌【Will U.S. Treasury Bonds Default? Three Steps to Understand the Truth】

🎯Short Conclusion: No, they will not default.

But why won't they? We’ll explore the fundamentals of U.S. finance from three perspectives:

✅Step One: Comparing with the “Debt King” Japan

🇯🇵Japan's debt/GDP ratio will exceed 250% in 2024, which is 1.7 times that of Greece during the 2010 Euro debt crisis, yet it has never defaulted.

The reason is simple: Almost all of Japan's government bonds are bought by its own people.

🔹Held by the Bank of Japan: 52%

🔹Domestic Financial Institutions: 40% (banks, insurance, pensions)

🔹Foreign Investors: Only 6.4%

Core Logic: As long as the central bank and domestic institutions are willing to take over, the cycle of “replacing old with new” will not break.

✅Step Two: The U.S. Debt Structure is Not Fragile

🇺🇸In 2024, the total U.S. government debt will be approximately $38.5 trillion, with a debt/GDP ratio of about 130%, which is much lower than Japan.

However, what concerns everyone is: The interest expenditure for the U.S. in fiscal year 2024 will reach $1.13 trillion (accounting for 13% of federal expenditure), can the payments be made?

👉Looking at the holder structure reveals:

🔹Held domestically in the U.S.: 76%

▫️Federal Reserve: $4.2 trillion

▫️Government internal accounts (such as Social Security, retirement funds): $2.4 trillion

▫️Financial institutions, household investors: over $5.9 trillion

🔹Held by foreign investors: 24% (approximately $8.8 trillion)

▫️Japan: $1.13 trillion

▫️China: $765.4 billion

▫️The UK, Luxembourg, and others collectively hold the remainder

🧠The conclusion is equally clear: The vast majority of U.S. debt is held domestically, and the risk is limited.

✅Step Three: Why did Greece have issues, and why won’t the U.S.?

🇬🇷The fundamental reason for Greece's debt crisis in 2010 was:

👉Foreign institutions held as high as 66.7% of its debt; once they stopped purchasing, the chain would break, leading to default.

🇺🇸Currently, the proportion of foreign-held debt in the U.S. is only 24%, and it has the most mature T-Bill refinancing mechanism globally, so it won’t “suddenly run out of money.”

🧨Exceptional Circumstances: Political Extremism Risks Still Need Attention

⚠️The only situation that could potentially lead to a default: a deliberately created default.

If some extreme political event occurs (such as former President “Trump” aggressively pushing for targeted debt defaults from certain countries, coupled with trade sanctions), then a technical default is not entirely impossible, but it would be a very low probability “black swan.”