加密布道使Aiden
Open Trade
ETH Holder
High-Frequency Trader
3.7 Years
复旦金融硕士，前公募基金A股分析师，现Web3创业。公众号：加密布道使
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49 Followers
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[Crypto Weekly Report 20250512] Is the main rising wave about to come? Will there be a pullback?
Hello, I am Aiden, and this is Crypto Evangelist.
From macro, fundamental, and technical perspectives, we will comprehensively interpret the crypto market.
1) Market review
Last week, under the positive news from the US-UK and China-US tariff negotiations + Trump's call to quickly buy stocks,
BTC breaks through $100,000, ETH surges 40%.
Is the main rising wave about to come? Will there be a pullback?
2) Macro perspective
In the short term, the postponement of tariffs + strong employment data has completely ended the recession trade.
Trump has also called for action, so let's welcome the president's birthday on June 14!
However, in the medium term, it is still very pessimistic, beware of the artificial M-top.
From macro, fundamental, and technical perspectives, we will comprehensively interpret the crypto market.
1) Market review
Last week, under the positive news from the US-UK and China-US tariff negotiations + Trump's call to quickly buy stocks,
BTC breaks through $100,000, ETH surges 40%.
Is the main rising wave about to come? Will there be a pullback?
2) Macro perspective
In the short term, the postponement of tariffs + strong employment data has completely ended the recession trade.
Trump has also called for action, so let's welcome the president's birthday on June 14!
However, in the medium term, it is still very pessimistic, beware of the artificial M-top.
See original
📊【2025.5.13 Global Market Commentary】—— Short-term optimism, long-term caution, the real show is yet to come
✅1. US Stocks: Emotional uplift, but undercurrents are stirring
Last night's CPI data was mildly lower than expected, leading to a slight market expectation of an earlier interest rate cut, with indices generally rising.
Short-term bearish signals are not obvious, market sentiment leans optimistic, paying attention to two potential positives:
Institutions largely missed this round, the risk of being passively squeezed is increasing;
There is a Call Wall above, and once breached, short covering could accelerate the upward movement.
Risk warning:
As of 5.12, the Fed's latest stance is hawkish; even if trade tensions temporarily ease, remain vigilant of the risks of inflation and recession overlapping.
After the China-US negotiations, Trump's comments towards Europe, India's WTO complaints, and other geopolitical disturbances are temporarily ignored by the market, but sudden negative events should be monitored.
✅2. US Treasuries: Yield critical point, increasing long-short divergence
10Y Treasury yield reached 4.5%, 30Y reached 4.95%, bulls are eager to act.
Many large funds have set psychological price levels for bullish positions around 10Y 4.5% and 30Y 5%.
✅3. Gold: Stabilized, but the storm is not far away
Current technical patterns can be seen as both a double top risk and a pullback to key support levels.
Trump's recent high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia, frequently praising Mohammed bin Salman, and repeatedly mentioning the Iran issue—geopolitical tensions are rising, and the chaotic era has not truly begun.
✅4. VIX Volatility: Space compressed, sentiment extremely optimistic
Yesterday, UVIX dropped to a low of 26, just a step away from the third position at 25.
The VIX index has fallen to 18.39, with limited further downside, indicating that future UVIX losses will largely come from market gains and time value erosion.
✅5. Exchange Rate: Dollar logic switching
The US dollar index is weakening, as the market digests the positives from the China-US negotiations, but other countries have not received similar treatment.
Given the current attitude towards Europe and India, the attractiveness of US Treasuries and the US dollar is marginally decreasing.
✅6. Cryptocurrency Market: Strengthening along with trends, but still sentiment-driven trading
Lower-than-expected CPI directly boosts market risk appetite, with the cryptocurrency market reaching a new high of 104,000.
Strategy suggestion:
In the short term, continue to be bullish, but pay attention to the emotional turning point; once US stock market sentiment shifts, cryptocurrency pullbacks may become more severe.
✅1. US Stocks: Emotional uplift, but undercurrents are stirring
Last night's CPI data was mildly lower than expected, leading to a slight market expectation of an earlier interest rate cut, with indices generally rising.
Short-term bearish signals are not obvious, market sentiment leans optimistic, paying attention to two potential positives:
Institutions largely missed this round, the risk of being passively squeezed is increasing;
There is a Call Wall above, and once breached, short covering could accelerate the upward movement.
Risk warning:
As of 5.12, the Fed's latest stance is hawkish; even if trade tensions temporarily ease, remain vigilant of the risks of inflation and recession overlapping.
After the China-US negotiations, Trump's comments towards Europe, India's WTO complaints, and other geopolitical disturbances are temporarily ignored by the market, but sudden negative events should be monitored.
✅2. US Treasuries: Yield critical point, increasing long-short divergence
10Y Treasury yield reached 4.5%, 30Y reached 4.95%, bulls are eager to act.
Many large funds have set psychological price levels for bullish positions around 10Y 4.5% and 30Y 5%.
✅3. Gold: Stabilized, but the storm is not far away
Current technical patterns can be seen as both a double top risk and a pullback to key support levels.
Trump's recent high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia, frequently praising Mohammed bin Salman, and repeatedly mentioning the Iran issue—geopolitical tensions are rising, and the chaotic era has not truly begun.
✅4. VIX Volatility: Space compressed, sentiment extremely optimistic
Yesterday, UVIX dropped to a low of 26, just a step away from the third position at 25.
The VIX index has fallen to 18.39, with limited further downside, indicating that future UVIX losses will largely come from market gains and time value erosion.
✅5. Exchange Rate: Dollar logic switching
The US dollar index is weakening, as the market digests the positives from the China-US negotiations, but other countries have not received similar treatment.
Given the current attitude towards Europe and India, the attractiveness of US Treasuries and the US dollar is marginally decreasing.
✅6. Cryptocurrency Market: Strengthening along with trends, but still sentiment-driven trading
Lower-than-expected CPI directly boosts market risk appetite, with the cryptocurrency market reaching a new high of 104,000.
Strategy suggestion:
In the short term, continue to be bullish, but pay attention to the emotional turning point; once US stock market sentiment shifts, cryptocurrency pullbacks may become more severe.
Translate
相信guo运！
什么是美国的核心竞争力？是美国股市。
在中国强大的制造业面前，关税战让懂王一个月就跪下了。
唯一不跪下的是美国的资本市场！不管你愿不愿意，诅咒也罢，羡慕也罢，这是美丽国最坚固的堡垒，最核心的竞争力。
纳指V型反转，让阿斗A股在风中凌乱。
再涨涨就又要历史新高了，熟悉的标语又将“粉墨登场”：
相信guo运，定投纳指！
什么是美国的核心竞争力？是美国股市。
在中国强大的制造业面前，关税战让懂王一个月就跪下了。
唯一不跪下的是美国的资本市场！不管你愿不愿意，诅咒也罢，羡慕也罢，这是美丽国最坚固的堡垒，最核心的竞争力。
纳指V型反转，让阿斗A股在风中凌乱。
再涨涨就又要历史新高了，熟悉的标语又将“粉墨登场”：
相信guo运，定投纳指！
See original
CPI is favorable, US stocks hit a new high in June! If you don't get on the train now, it will be too late!
See original
If this helps you, please like, share, and follow, X with the same name!
【Crypto Weekly Report 20250512】Is the main rally coming? Will there be a pullback?
Hello, I am Aiden, and this is Crypto Evangelist.
From macroeconomic fundamentals to technical analysis, I will interpret the crypto market comprehensively for you.
The article below will be very helpful for you!!! $BTC $ETH
Hello, I am Aiden, and this is Crypto Evangelist.
From macroeconomic fundamentals to technical analysis, I will interpret the crypto market comprehensively for you.
The article below will be very helpful for you!!! $BTC $ETH
See original
If this helps you, give a follow, X has the same name!
【Crypto Weekly Report 20250512】Is the main rally coming? Will there be a pullback?
Hello, I am Aiden, and this is Crypto Evangelist.
From macroeconomic fundamentals to technical analysis, I will interpret the crypto market comprehensively for you.
The article below will be very helpful for you!!! $BTC $ETH
Hello, I am Aiden, and this is Crypto Evangelist.
From macroeconomic fundamentals to technical analysis, I will interpret the crypto market comprehensively for you.
The article below will be very helpful for you!!! $BTC $ETH
See original
【Crypto Weekly Report 20250512】Is the main rally coming? Will there be a pullback?
Hello, I am Aiden, and this is Crypto Evangelist.
From macroeconomic fundamentals to technical analysis, I will interpret the crypto market comprehensively for you.
The article below will be very helpful for you!!! $BTC $ETH
Hello, I am Aiden, and this is Crypto Evangelist.
From macroeconomic fundamentals to technical analysis, I will interpret the crypto market comprehensively for you.
The article below will be very helpful for you!!! $BTC $ETH
[Crypto Weekly Report 20250512] Is the main rising wave about to come? Will there be a pullback?
Hello, I am Aiden, and this is Crypto Evangelist.
From macro, fundamental, and technical perspectives, we will comprehensively interpret the crypto market.
1) Market review
Last week, under the positive news from the US-UK and China-US tariff negotiations + Trump's call to quickly buy stocks,
BTC breaks through $100,000, ETH surges 40%.
Is the main rising wave about to come? Will there be a pullback?
2) Macro perspective
In the short term, the postponement of tariffs + strong employment data has completely ended the recession trade.
Trump has also called for action, so let's welcome the president's birthday on June 14!
However, in the medium term, it is still very pessimistic, beware of the artificial M-top.
From macro, fundamental, and technical perspectives, we will comprehensively interpret the crypto market.
1) Market review
Last week, under the positive news from the US-UK and China-US tariff negotiations + Trump's call to quickly buy stocks,
BTC breaks through $100,000, ETH surges 40%.
Is the main rising wave about to come? Will there be a pullback?
2) Macro perspective
In the short term, the postponement of tariffs + strong employment data has completely ended the recession trade.
Trump has also called for action, so let's welcome the president's birthday on June 14!
However, in the medium term, it is still very pessimistic, beware of the artificial M-top.
See original
Please pay attention! Same name as X!
[Crypto Weekly Report 20250512] Is the main rising wave about to come? Will there be a pullback?
Hello, I am Aiden, and this is Crypto Evangelist.
From macro, fundamental, and technical perspectives, we will comprehensively interpret the crypto market.
1) Market review
Last week, under the positive news from the US-UK and China-US tariff negotiations + Trump's call to quickly buy stocks,
BTC breaks through $100,000, ETH surges 40%.
Is the main rising wave about to come? Will there be a pullback?
2) Macro perspective
In the short term, the postponement of tariffs + strong employment data has completely ended the recession trade.
Trump has also called for action, so let's welcome the president's birthday on June 14!
However, in the medium term, it is still very pessimistic, beware of the artificial M-top.
From macro, fundamental, and technical perspectives, we will comprehensively interpret the crypto market.
1) Market review
Last week, under the positive news from the US-UK and China-US tariff negotiations + Trump's call to quickly buy stocks,
BTC breaks through $100,000, ETH surges 40%.
Is the main rising wave about to come? Will there be a pullback?
2) Macro perspective
In the short term, the postponement of tariffs + strong employment data has completely ended the recession trade.
Trump has also called for action, so let's welcome the president's birthday on June 14!
However, in the medium term, it is still very pessimistic, beware of the artificial M-top.
See original
The United States has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for a period of 90 days. China will reduce tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10% for a period of 90 days.
India-Pakistan air combat, increased military discourse power in the village + before the June U.S. debt renewal, it's not easy for old Trump to stir things up,
let's sit down and have a good chat to celebrate President Trump's birthday!
$ETH go in more, if you die, so be it!
India-Pakistan air combat, increased military discourse power in the village + before the June U.S. debt renewal, it's not easy for old Trump to stir things up,
let's sit down and have a good chat to celebrate President Trump's birthday!
$ETH go in more, if you die, so be it!
See original
In the first quarter of 2025, VCs invested $4.8 billion in cryptocurrency and blockchain startups (a quarter-over-quarter increase of 54%), completing a total of 446 transactions (a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.5%).
Perhaps the spring of VC is coming soon!
This is just the beginning! This is also the reason I am optimistic about the next year $ETH .
I have repeatedly mentioned that one of the important reasons for the poor performance of $ETH is the underperformance of the ecosystem, especially VC projects.
The reason for the underperformance of VCs is primarily due to high financing costs from high interest rates and the Biden administration's strong regulations, which have restricted Web3 innovation.
However, this year, everything has changed.
This is my understanding, and I welcome discussions.
Perhaps the spring of VC is coming soon!
This is just the beginning! This is also the reason I am optimistic about the next year $ETH .
I have repeatedly mentioned that one of the important reasons for the poor performance of $ETH is the underperformance of the ecosystem, especially VC projects.
The reason for the underperformance of VCs is primarily due to high financing costs from high interest rates and the Biden administration's strong regulations, which have restricted Web3 innovation.
However, this year, everything has changed.
This is my understanding, and I welcome discussions.
See original
The China-US talks went surprisingly smoothly, and the fundamentals of the raging bull have gradually taken shape!
Just now, China and the US made a statement regarding tariff differences in Geneva,
both sides believe that they have reached a friendly consultation,
and have reached some consensus,
and will issue a joint statement later today.
Just now, China and the US made a statement regarding tariff differences in Geneva,
both sides believe that they have reached a friendly consultation,
and have reached some consensus,
and will issue a joint statement later today.
See original
From May 10 to 11, high-level Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks led by Vice Premier He Lifeng and Finance Minister Bessenet were held in Geneva, Switzerland.
The Chinese side stated that in-depth exchanges were conducted on economic and trade issues of mutual concern. The atmosphere of the talks was candid, in-depth, and constructive.
The Chinese side indicated that substantial progress was made in the talks, and important consensus was reached. The Sino-U.S. sides will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and will issue a joint statement on the outcomes of the talks on May 12.
Both sides unanimously agreed to establish a Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, clarifying the leaders of both sides to hold further consultations on economic and trade issues of respective concerns.
The situation is stronger than the individual, and cooperation benefits both sides.
Yesterday, the flexible figure, Uncle Wang, sent out some good news! It seems this news is not misleading.
A punch to open the fight prevents a hundred punches from coming.
Peace is fought for.
Severely damaged, the “never surrender” India has been scared, breaking news: India-Pakistan ceasefire!
In April, our country’s unprecedented hard counterattack shocked the world, ushering in the best negotiation window period in May. Mature politicians do not act impulsively but assess the situation.
Hot wars can be paused, and trade wars can also.
Although subsequent negotiations will still face twists and turns, the worst moment has passed, and good news will follow.
Next, let's look at the performance of the capital market.
Are you ready?
$ETH Invest more and if it fails, so be it. If you make a profit, remember to join my strategy group to continue investing in yourself.
The Chinese side stated that in-depth exchanges were conducted on economic and trade issues of mutual concern. The atmosphere of the talks was candid, in-depth, and constructive.
The Chinese side indicated that substantial progress was made in the talks, and important consensus was reached. The Sino-U.S. sides will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and will issue a joint statement on the outcomes of the talks on May 12.
Both sides unanimously agreed to establish a Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, clarifying the leaders of both sides to hold further consultations on economic and trade issues of respective concerns.
The situation is stronger than the individual, and cooperation benefits both sides.
Yesterday, the flexible figure, Uncle Wang, sent out some good news! It seems this news is not misleading.
A punch to open the fight prevents a hundred punches from coming.
Peace is fought for.
Severely damaged, the “never surrender” India has been scared, breaking news: India-Pakistan ceasefire!
In April, our country’s unprecedented hard counterattack shocked the world, ushering in the best negotiation window period in May. Mature politicians do not act impulsively but assess the situation.
Hot wars can be paused, and trade wars can also.
Although subsequent negotiations will still face twists and turns, the worst moment has passed, and good news will follow.
Next, let's look at the performance of the capital market.
Are you ready?
$ETH Invest more and if it fails, so be it. If you make a profit, remember to join my strategy group to continue investing in yourself.
See original
From May 10 to 11, high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States, led by Deputy Prime Minister He Lifeng and Finance Minister Bessenet, will be held in Geneva, Switzerland.
The Chinese side stated that both parties engaged in in-depth exchanges on economic and trade issues of mutual concern. The atmosphere of the talks was candid, in-depth, and constructive.
The Chinese side indicated that the talks achieved substantial progress and reached important consensus. Both China and the United States will finalize the relevant details as soon as possible and will issue a joint statement on the outcome of the talks on May 12.
Both sides agreed to establish a China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, clarifying the leaders of both sides to conduct further consultations on the economic and trade issues of their respective concerns.
The situation is stronger than the person; cooperation benefits both.
Yesterday, the flexible and savvy Uncle Trump sent some good news! It seems this news is not misleading.
A punch thrown can prevent a hundred punches coming.
Peace is fought for.
Severely hit, the 'never surrender' India is frightened, breaking news: India-Pakistan ceasefire!
In April, our country's unprecedented strong counterattack shocked the world, ushering in the best negotiation window period in May. Judging the situation, mature politicians do not act impulsively.
Hot wars can pause, and trade wars can too.
Although subsequent negotiations may experience ups and downs, the worst moments have passed, and good news will follow one after another.
Next, let's see the performance of the capital market.
Are you ready?
$ETH , if you go in and die, then so be it. If you make a profit, remember to join my strategy group and continue to invest in yourself.
The Chinese side stated that both parties engaged in in-depth exchanges on economic and trade issues of mutual concern. The atmosphere of the talks was candid, in-depth, and constructive.
The Chinese side indicated that the talks achieved substantial progress and reached important consensus. Both China and the United States will finalize the relevant details as soon as possible and will issue a joint statement on the outcome of the talks on May 12.
Both sides agreed to establish a China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, clarifying the leaders of both sides to conduct further consultations on the economic and trade issues of their respective concerns.
The situation is stronger than the person; cooperation benefits both.
Yesterday, the flexible and savvy Uncle Trump sent some good news! It seems this news is not misleading.
A punch thrown can prevent a hundred punches coming.
Peace is fought for.
Severely hit, the 'never surrender' India is frightened, breaking news: India-Pakistan ceasefire!
In April, our country's unprecedented strong counterattack shocked the world, ushering in the best negotiation window period in May. Judging the situation, mature politicians do not act impulsively.
Hot wars can pause, and trade wars can too.
Although subsequent negotiations may experience ups and downs, the worst moments have passed, and good news will follow one after another.
Next, let's see the performance of the capital market.
Are you ready?
$ETH , if you go in and die, then so be it. If you make a profit, remember to join my strategy group and continue to invest in yourself.
See original
As expected, the interest rate has been lowered. Looking forward to more!
I feel that the tariff negotiations will bring even greater benefits!
The gains from the battle are the bargaining chips for the village's tariff negotiations; with a different military status, the economic and financial status should also change accordingly. A hot war can be paused; can the tariff war be paused as well?
$ETH
The gains from the battle are the bargaining chips for the village's tariff negotiations; with a different military status, the economic and financial status should also change accordingly. A hot war can be paused; can the tariff war be paused as well?
$ETH
See original
$ETH
Tell a ghost story,
BTC weekly MACD is about to golden cross!
The last time was in October 2024,
The time before that was in February 2024,
The time before that was in October 2023,
Each time it rallied for 4-6 weeks.
Although I always felt this was a dead cat bounce,
this jump could last for 1 month...
The positive factors I can think of include continued easing of tariffs, CPI below expectations, Trump calling out trades,
it seems they don't match the logic of the previous 3 golden crosses,
but Trump can always give you infinite possibilities,
after all, his birthday is about a month later.$ETH
Tell a ghost story,
BTC weekly MACD is about to golden cross!
The last time was in October 2024,
The time before that was in February 2024,
The time before that was in October 2023,
Each time it rallied for 4-6 weeks.
Although I always felt this was a dead cat bounce,
this jump could last for 1 month...
The positive factors I can think of include continued easing of tariffs, CPI below expectations, Trump calling out trades,
it seems they don't match the logic of the previous 3 golden crosses,
but Trump can always give you infinite possibilities,
after all, his birthday is about a month later.$ETH
See original
I feel that the tariff negotiations will bring even greater benefits!
The gains from the battle are the bargaining chips for the village's tariff negotiations; with a different military status, the economic and financial status should also change accordingly. A hot war can be paused; can the tariff war be paused as well?
$ETH
The gains from the battle are the bargaining chips for the village's tariff negotiations; with a different military status, the economic and financial status should also change accordingly. A hot war can be paused; can the tariff war be paused as well?
$ETH
See original
The market share of USDT can measure the liquidity on the exchange,
it slightly rebounded at the 5% support level, but was knocked down by the middle line of the BOLL band and indeed surged.
It is very likely to return to last December's level!!! This indicator continues to look bullish in the short term!
It may rebound until after Trump's birthday in June before reversing?
it slightly rebounded at the 5% support level, but was knocked down by the middle line of the BOLL band and indeed surged.
It is very likely to return to last December's level!!! This indicator continues to look bullish in the short term!
It may rebound until after Trump's birthday in June before reversing?
See original
📢U.S. Stocks Witness Bitcoin 'Gambler' Again! Stock Price Soars 740% in a Single Day!
According to BlockBeats, on May 10, shares of U.S. company Next Technology Holding Inc skyrocketed 740% on Friday afternoon, closing at $2.7.
The reason is simple: madly buying Bitcoin!
As of March 31, 2025, the company holds a staggering 5,833 Bitcoins, with a market value of approximately $481.7 million.
By the end of 2024, this number was only 833.
This wave of acquisition was mainly completed through financing from the issuance of stocks and warrants in March.
The company's positioning is straightforward:
Software Development + Bitcoin Investment.
Q1 financial report shows its net income is $193.4 million, almost entirely from unrealized gains in digital assets.
Is this move a signal of 'ALL IN' on Bitcoin, or a speculative feast in the capital markets?🎲📈
$BTC
According to BlockBeats, on May 10, shares of U.S. company Next Technology Holding Inc skyrocketed 740% on Friday afternoon, closing at $2.7.
The reason is simple: madly buying Bitcoin!
As of March 31, 2025, the company holds a staggering 5,833 Bitcoins, with a market value of approximately $481.7 million.
By the end of 2024, this number was only 833.
This wave of acquisition was mainly completed through financing from the issuance of stocks and warrants in March.
The company's positioning is straightforward:
Software Development + Bitcoin Investment.
Q1 financial report shows its net income is $193.4 million, almost entirely from unrealized gains in digital assets.
Is this move a signal of 'ALL IN' on Bitcoin, or a speculative feast in the capital markets?🎲📈
$BTC
Translate
📢美股再现比特币“豪赌者”！股价单日暴涨 740%！
据 BlockBeats 报道，5 月 10 日，美股公司 Next Technology Holding Inc 股价周五下午狂飙 740%，收于 2.7 美元。
原因只有一个：疯狂买比特币！
截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，公司持有比特币暴增至 5,833 枚，市值约 4.817 亿美元。
而在 2024 年底，这一数字仅为 833 枚。
这波增持主要通过 3 月发行股票和认股权证融资 完成。
公司定位也很直接：
软件开发 + 比特币投资。
Q1 财报数据显示，其净收入 1.934 亿美元，几乎全部来自数字资产的未实现收益。
这波操作，是“ALL IN”比特币的信号，还是资本市场的投机盛宴？🎲📈
$BTC
据 BlockBeats 报道，5 月 10 日，美股公司 Next Technology Holding Inc 股价周五下午狂飙 740%，收于 2.7 美元。
原因只有一个：疯狂买比特币！
截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，公司持有比特币暴增至 5,833 枚，市值约 4.817 亿美元。
而在 2024 年底，这一数字仅为 833 枚。
这波增持主要通过 3 月发行股票和认股权证融资 完成。
公司定位也很直接：
软件开发 + 比特币投资。
Q1 财报数据显示，其净收入 1.934 亿美元，几乎全部来自数字资产的未实现收益。
这波操作，是“ALL IN”比特币的信号，还是资本市场的投机盛宴？🎲📈
$BTC
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