加密布道使Aiden

📉【Ten-Year Review: A-shares Did Not Outperform GDP or CPI, But Investors Have Gained Extensive Knowledge】

In June 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index was 5178 points, the ChiNext Index was 4037 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index was 18211 points.

In June 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index is 3377 points, the ChiNext Index is 2043 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index is 10122 points.

⏳
After a full decade, the “three major indices” of A-shares have halved as a norm:
Shanghai Composite Index: -34.78%
Shenzhen Component Index: -44.42%
ChiNext Index: -49.39%

🧮
Meanwhile, over the past ten years:
Annualized GDP growth: 7.08%
Annualized CPI growth: 1.44%
Annualized increase in Shanghai housing prices: 7.18%

📊
A-shares did not outperform GDP, did not outperform CPI, and certainly did not outperform housing prices.
But—

📚
Investors, through a decade of market baptism, have learned macro analysis, fundamental valuation, financial modeling, and policy assessment, becoming extensively knowledgeable and bearing much hardship.

🏛️
In these ten years:
2582 companies completed IPOs, equivalent to the total of the previous 24 years.
Fund companies have profited from management fees, with public and private offerings taking turns to tell stories.
Industrial capital has cashed out extensively, and securities firms and exchanges are becoming increasingly luxurious.
The “leeks” of the secondary market have been replaced one after another.

🧩
Investment is becoming more and more like a “game of knowledge and patience,” but also increasingly resembles a “feast for structural winners.”

💭
Will you continue to invest in the next decade?

Do you believe this market will eventually emerge from darkness and welcome a return to value?

Or have you turned to global asset allocation, or engaged in other fields?

📌【Will U.S. Treasury Bonds Default? Three Steps to Understand the Truth】

🎯Short Conclusion: No, they will not default.

But why won't they? We’ll explore the fundamentals of U.S. finance from three perspectives:

✅Step One: Comparing with the “Debt King” Japan

🇯🇵Japan's debt/GDP ratio will exceed 250% in 2024, which is 1.7 times that of Greece during the 2010 Euro debt crisis, yet it has never defaulted.

The reason is simple: Almost all of Japan's government bonds are bought by its own people.

🔹Held by the Bank of Japan: 52%

🔹Domestic Financial Institutions: 40% (banks, insurance, pensions)

🔹Foreign Investors: Only 6.4%

Core Logic: As long as the central bank and domestic institutions are willing to take over, the cycle of “replacing old with new” will not break.

✅Step Two: The U.S. Debt Structure is Not Fragile

🇺🇸In 2024, the total U.S. government debt will be approximately $38.5 trillion, with a debt/GDP ratio of about 130%, which is much lower than Japan.
However, what concerns everyone is: The interest expenditure for the U.S. in fiscal year 2024 will reach $1.13 trillion (accounting for 13% of federal expenditure), can the payments be made?

👉Looking at the holder structure reveals:

🔹Held domestically in the U.S.: 76%
  
▫️Federal Reserve: $4.2 trillion
  
▫️Government internal accounts (such as Social Security, retirement funds): $2.4 trillion
  
▫️Financial institutions, household investors: over $5.9 trillion

🔹Held by foreign investors: 24% (approximately $8.8 trillion)
  
▫️Japan: $1.13 trillion
  
▫️China: $765.4 billion
  
▫️The UK, Luxembourg, and others collectively hold the remainder

🧠The conclusion is equally clear: The vast majority of U.S. debt is held domestically, and the risk is limited.

✅Step Three: Why did Greece have issues, and why won’t the U.S.?

🇬🇷The fundamental reason for Greece's debt crisis in 2010 was:

👉Foreign institutions held as high as 66.7% of its debt; once they stopped purchasing, the chain would break, leading to default.

🇺🇸Currently, the proportion of foreign-held debt in the U.S. is only 24%, and it has the most mature T-Bill refinancing mechanism globally, so it won’t “suddenly run out of money.”

🧨Exceptional Circumstances: Political Extremism Risks Still Need Attention

⚠️The only situation that could potentially lead to a default: a deliberately created default.
If some extreme political event occurs (such as former President “Trump” aggressively pushing for targeted debt defaults from certain countries, coupled with trade sanctions), then a technical default is not entirely impossible, but it would be a very low probability “black swan.”

Breaking news, G2 leaders have made a call!

Fight but do not break, cooperate for mutual benefit.

If Russia and Ukraine can negotiate, China and the United States can shake hands.

Of course, it's hard to say how long the shelf life will last.

Everyone adheres to the art of negotiation, seeing how many tradable chips they have in hand.

Is the market trading on positive news realization or risk on? Let's first look at the performance of the US stock market that is about to open.

Additionally, we must keep a close eye on US Treasury bonds. Does the trading plan include US Treasuries?

📈Circle is going public, understand Circle's fundamentals in one chart!

Circle's IPO is too hot; looking at the investment bank's numbers feels like a shot of adrenaline,

Now investment banks are already projecting a 60% compound growth rate for stablecoins in the coming years.

But don't forget—previous growth was a wild, unmonitored expansion without GENIUS; Goldman Sachs never counted or monitored this, and actually, it's not up to investment banks to monitor. A new era has arrived, and investment banks are starting to paint a rosy picture.

💸 If we benchmark against Tether's profits, this pricing does seem cheap. But Tether relies on its gray market fundamentals, which yield high profits; Circle is relying on cutting prices to capture market share, which may face:

A surge in stock prices upon listing, followed by a decline as profits can't be released.

📌 It feels like the entire crypto market's sentiment is about to be stirred up; another wave of harvesting is coming.

💬 So, are you getting on board? Let’s discuss in the comments
👇

💥【Explosive】Hong Kong Official Announcement: Officially Considering Opening Virtual Asset Derivative Trading!

On June 4th, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) suddenly released a major announcement:

👉 Planning to open virtual asset derivative trading to professional investors!

What does it mean?

✔️ Bitcoin Futures

✔️ Ethereum Options

✔️ And other advanced derivatives
These were originally only available on overseas platforms, and now they can soon be traded through legitimate channels in Hong Kong!

😮 You might ask:
"Aren't they afraid of explosions with such super volatile products in Hong Kong?"

The answer is: Hong Kong has been ready for a long time.

📋 The SFC also announced the “A-S-P-I-Re” regulatory roadmap:
Initially open only to “professional investors,” retail investors will watch for now.
Clear product suitability thresholds + Strengthened market manipulation prevention + Strict information disclosure
Incorporating the risk control system into the core compliance framework
Ensuring that this opening is not “hype,” but a sustainable and orderly upgrade of financial infrastructure.

🧭 More critically: this is just the beginning.

It is reported that a second virtual asset policy declaration is also on the way. The next phase will include:

📌 Tax Incentives:
Incorporating virtual asset trading into the tax-exempt scope for single family offices and private equity funds.
Implementing 0% profits tax, a significant benefit for global high-net-worth capital.

📌 Technological Integration:
Encouraging local/international companies to promote the integration of virtual asset technology with the real economy.
The goal is not to “speculate on coins,” but to promote the financialization and digitalization of industrial structures.

📌 Strategic Intent:
Hong Kong is using virtual assets to create the next decade's “new financial growth pole,” rebuilding the global financial center's discourse power.

📈 In summary:
This is not just a simple relaxation of trading permissions, but:

👉 Hong Kong is using digital assets to rebind traditional finance + innovative regulation + international capital, betting on the next decade!

The global super hub for virtual assets may really be born in Hong Kong.

📣
What do you think of Hong Kong's move? Can it really create a “crypto Wall Street”?
You are welcome to like, comment, and share, let's pay attention to this reshaping of the financial landscape together.
👇

#AIBT正在冲Alpha

Come and get him!

Send Dogecoin #AIBT (2000 per person, current price 1U, if it can go on alpha it might be a big dog)

✅【Follow me】+【Like】+【Share】

💸In the comments, leave your BSC address and a screenshot of your share

Deadline tonight at 22:00, start counting, and give out benefits,

Bosses in need, act quickly!

📅 Countdown Five Weeks | Are Tariffs Coming Back?

Only 5 weeks left until the deadline for the restoration of tariffs on July 8.

🌍 Countries are currently watching and no one wants to be the "first to negotiate"; everyone is waiting to see — who acts first, who suffers first.

So the current game rules are very clear:
Only when Trump raises the "big stick" will anyone sit at the negotiation table.

When will he start to take action?

🎂 My guess is — after Trump's birthday on June 14.

Why?

1️⃣ Trump doesn't "celebrate birthdays" and doesn't make big moves;

2️⃣ U.S. debt is heavily due in mid-June, so fiscal matters will be prioritized for refinancing;

Currently, the "TACO trade" (Trump Always Chicken Out) remains valid in the short term, so he probably won't act too aggressively.

The current market sentiment is "anxiety under pressure"; it seems calm but could ignite at any moment.
If you are a trader, it's time to start preparing volatility tools, tail protection, and reverse scenarios.

💬 When do you think Trump will take "real action"? Is the market ready for it?
Feel free to share, comment, and let's keep a close eye on this high-stakes game 👇

Is the technical outlook for BTC weak, is the bullish trend over? Is ETH the doomsday vehicle?
With the US Treasury auction approaching, is there a risk of failure for Trump's TACO? What impact does the US debt credit crisis have on BTC?
What are the bulls waiting for? What are the bears waiting for?

#AIBT
This local dog is a bit fierce, is it going to go ALPHA?

All face is lost

The humanoid robot, the main line in the early stage, fell into the trap and abandoned the person. The market is looking at the new prince.

The stable currency that jumped out yesterday is routine today, and the leader Zhongan took the lead in diving.
🤣🤣🤣

Zhongan shareholders also have something to say. I have risen for four days. What's wrong with reducing holdings to improve life during the Dragon Boat Festival?

After fighting for a lifetime, can't you enjoy it?

It's just hard for the brothers who followed the trend in the A-share market. The brothers who got on the bus and got in and out quickly yesterday landed safely. The brothers who studied hard all night last night tried to take over today, and died after trying.

The subject matter is imaginative, and the individual stocks are all old actors. They all think they can be speculated, but when they ask when the performance calculator can be calculated, they don't know.

A concept that we have played with in the B circle, you studied it as a treasure all night.

🚨SEC "U-Turn": PoS staking ≠ securities issuance, ETH staking ETF ushered in a turnaround?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has just issued a major statement, and there has been a major shift in the regulatory stance on crypto staking, especially the staking activities of PoS (proof of stake) blockchains such as Ethereum - no longer considered securities issuance!

📌SEC clarified: The following three types of staking do not constitute securities issuance:

1️⃣ Autonomous staking: Node operators use their own assets to participate in verification;

2️⃣ Third-party non-custodial staking: Users hold their own coins and only entrust the verification rights to others;

3️⃣ Compliance custodial staking: Custodians isolate user assets and may not misappropriate or re-pledge them.

📎 Regulatory logic:
The rewards obtained from these staking activities are the "consideration" for network verification services, rather than the "investment income" obtained by relying on the efforts of others. Therefore, they do not meet the "Howey Test" (U.S. securities judgment standard) and do not constitute securities issuance.

✅Additional Note: The SEC also confirmed that the following services do not change the nature of staking:
Slashing Insurance
Early Unbinding Function
Reward Reinvestment (Compound)
Asset Aggregator

⚠️However, the following services may still constitute securities issuance:
Provide a fixed income commitment
Use customer assets to participate in transactions or other profit-making activities

🔒 Custodian Staking: Three Red Lines
The SEC particularly emphasizes that the custodian must do the following:
Customer assets are independent of company funds
Prohibit secondary use such as lending and re-mortgage
Ensure that customer assets are not interfered with by third-party recourse
This statement releases regulatory clarity for the industry, allowing compliant institutions to finally "pledge with confidence".

🟢Eliminate uncertainty, ETH ETF staking function is expected to be lifted
In the past, the SEC banned ETF products from participating in staking, limiting their profit potential (annualized 2-4%). ​​This softening of attitude may pave the way for the subsequent opening of ETF staking functions and enhance product attractiveness.

🗣What do you think of this wave of SEC attitude changes? How likely is it that ETH ETF will add a staking function? Will it drive the next wave of the bull market?
Welcome to comment and discuss + forward and follow, and continue to track the dynamics of pledge supervision👇

🌀“You sue me? I will appeal the judgment you filed!” Trump successfully strikes back, tariffs continue to be enforced

On May 29, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit approved the Trump administration's emergency request to temporarily freeze the previous ruling of the International Trade Court, which means:

👉 Most tariffs that were originally suspended will continue to be enforced until June 9, and whether they will be extended depends on the progress of the appeal.
Trump clearly has no intention of “going down the slope,” continuing to push forward with the tariff policy.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve also poured cold water on the situation: we haven't seen weak employment data yet. The market's short-term optimism has been hit with a brake.

📊
Market Brief:

1⃣ U.S. Stocks: Opened high but fell, initially preparing to celebrate the invalidation of tariffs, but the reinstatement caused a normal decline. However, it closed in the green, indicating that the market still recognizes the value of yesterday's ruling.

2⃣ U.S. Treasuries: Yields fell along with stocks, reflecting the reality that “taxes have not been lifted, and we can still collect hundreds of billions.” Better than nothing.

3⃣ Gold: Rebounded strongly in the U.S. session after a retreat in Asia. A typical case of “when the East shines, the West dims,” showing that the bulls still have resilience.

4⃣ VIX Volatility Index: S&P slightly up, VIX slightly down, UVIX stabilized at 29, continuing to wait for VIX to drop to around 25 as the next accumulation window.

5⃣ U.S. Dollar Index: At one point, it surged towards the 100 mark but was blocked again, forming a long upper shadow, confirming that 100 remains a solid technical resistance level. If tariffs are not lifted, everything returns to the old script, and the narrative of American exceptionalism will start to be priced in again.

6⃣ Crypto Market: Bitcoin retreated to the $105,000 range. I consulted a leading crypto expert from Hong Kong yesterday about my reserved attitude towards the future of stablecoins in Hong Kong (regulatory pathways, market structure issues, etc.), and he laughed and said: you see too clearly. Right now, a few companies are just getting licenses, and how far and how they can go is still in exploration.

🎯 Summary: Trump did not “back down,” the court drama has reversed, and the market has once again entered a high-pressure state. Tariffs have not been lifted, and the Federal Reserve's cold words have led to further market turbulence.

💬 Do you think there will be a turnaround on June 9? Is the market overestimating “TACO”? Feel free to like, follow, and share to track this judicial + policy battle together.
👇

A-shares are really damn boring!
These are all leftovers from our crypto circle, I didn't expect that.

Many friends from the traditional secondary market come to ask me how to understand stablecoins, what is RWA?

🌮TACO is still hungry, and suddenly the U.S. courts take action!

These past few days, a key term has been circulating in the market: TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out).

Yesterday, a reporter directly mentioned the "TACO trade" to Trump, and he clearly wasn't pleased: "I’ve never heard of it, but it sounds awful, don’t say it again." He even bluntly stated: "Don't ever say what you said, this is a nasty question."

At the same time, the Financial Times revealed: The Trump administration is in talks with U.S. chip design companies, asking them to stop exporting software to Chinese firms. Below, netizens commented overwhelmingly: "Another TACO."

📉Mid-term logic shows red lights:
When "TACO" becomes a market consensus, Trump's deterrent power decreases; if he actually wants to take action, he’ll have to come up with something even stronger. Currently, several global issues — Iran's nuclear program, the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, Sino-U.S. trade, and small nation agreements — are in the midst of the "TACO trade." If one of them doesn’t back down, volatility could sharply increase.

⚖️**Major ruling:** On May 28, the U.S. Federal Trade Court ruled that most of Trump's tariffs are invalid, ordering their cancellation and permanently banning similar actions. The Trump team has appealed, and the matter is still undecided.

📊Asset performance tracking:

1⃣U.S. stocks: Opened high but fell low, with a last-minute plunge, possibly reacting to news of the chip export ban. But combined with TACO sentiment, this might be another case of market overpricing.

2⃣U.S. bonds: Poor auction for Japanese bonds, U.S. bonds opened and were heavily sold. However, the contexts of Japan and the U.S. are different; Japanese residents have ample savings, whereas the U.S. has structural fiscal issues.

3⃣Gold: Slight correction, short-term narratives are overly saturated, but still bullish in the mid-term. A 10% short-term drop is normal; rising volatility relies on tool control—don’t add leverage.

4⃣VIX: Slight rebound. When TACO sentiment reaches its peak, it may very well be the next opportunity to increase VIX positions.

5⃣Exchange rate: The U.S. dollar index rebounded to 99.86; pressure around the 100 mark is significant. Strong dollar → Asian pension funds hedge; interest rate drop → reduce holdings in U.S. bonds. This is a long-term strategy of reducing holdings on highs.

6⃣Cryptocurrency market: Mixed trends. The Bitcoin 2025 conference had average heat, and JD Vance's speech was uninspiring. Continuing to look for the last short-term gains.

💬How long do you think this "TACO market" will last? Will Trump succeed in turning the tables?
Feel free to follow + share + comment
👇

🇺🇸💥 Trump's tariff policy 'halted'? The US court has intervened!

This morning, the US International Trade Court suddenly ruled:

✅ To stop most of the increased tariffs during Trump's term, including:
A global 10% 'reciprocal tariff'
A 20% tariff on fentanyl products from China
A 25% tariff on non-agreement goods from Mexico and Canada

⛔ However, some key industries (automobiles, steel, aluminum) are temporarily not included in this ruling.

📆 The court has given a 10-day grace period to implement the 'permanent injunction', directly affecting the market:
US stock futures surged
Gold dropped sharply

👀 Trump, of course, is not satisfied and quickly appealed, expected to head straight to the Supreme Court! Currently, the conservative majority in the Supreme Court is 6:3, which may allow him a chance to turn the tide and bring back the tariffs.

🇨🇳 What does this mean for China?
US tariffs on China could decrease from 50% → 20%, alleviating export pressure, potentially leading to a surge in exports and improving economic data.
Key points in the China-US negotiations in August: This time, China may be able to take more initiative.

💬 What do you think? Can Trump win this back? What opportunities will this surge in exports bring?
Feel free to share, comment, and let's dissect this international game together!
👇

🧨TMTG has another MSTR! The scarcity of MSTR is being weakened!

Trump's TMTG (Trump Media Technology Group) has also come to copy the homework – directly replicating the MicroStrategy-style logic of buying coins.

This might also be the reason for MSTR's relatively weak stock performance recently. Is MSTR's role as a leading indicator for BTC about to weaken?

📌 The classic three-step process, I’ve found the pattern with Trump:
Announcement (May 26)
TMTG plans to raise $3 billion to buy crypto assets

Denial (May 27)
"We don't have a specific plan to buy Bitcoin"

Official Announcement (May 28)
Confirmed a financing deal of about $2.5 billion, preparing to establish a Bitcoin reserve!

🧭 MSTR's leadership is being copied and weakened
All along, MSTR has been the "options premium indicator of Bitcoin sentiment":

Its price often leads BTC by 1 to 2 weeks to show inflection points
The market is accustomed to using it as an institutional sentiment barometer

However, MSTR's performance has been very weak in the past few days, starting high and dropping low, and the premium is shrinking, releasing the following three signals:

📉 The market's expectations for future increases are cooling, and sentiment is transitioning from hot to cold

🪓 MSTR's "uniqueness" is being diluted, and the new $42 billion financing plan may also face difficulties

More and more companies – such as TMTG, Sharplink, Semler Scientific, etc. – are becoming "MicroStrategy-like"
The idea of “institutions buying BTC” is no longer a monopoly of MSTR

🧠 TMTG is also quite interesting: the plot is too similar, but the quality is insufficient

📉 TMTG's fundamentals are extremely weak: Truth Social can't hold the scene, with annual revenue only $3.6 million, but losses as high as $400 million

🎢 The stock price first rises then crashes: up 15% pre-market, but down 8% on the day of the official announcement

🧨 Investors are worried: this is not asset allocation, it's high-stakes gambling
In other words, MSTR is “true faith + true cash flow”, while TMTG is “riding the wave + playing with chips”
It looks like a micro strategy, but in reality, it’s a shadow strategy.

📢 What do you think?
Is TMTG the next MSTR, or just a hype swap?
Can MSTR continue to be used as a signal indicator for BTC?
Feel free to leave a comment
👇 If you like this kind of in-depth quick commentary, please like + follow + share to support!

🥩The last bite of meat should be eaten, but keep an eye on the 'gate knife'

Last night, the news was bombarding us:

🇺🇸 Trump Media Group raised $2.5 billion and plans to accumulate BTC in the long term
🪙 SharPlink raised $400 million to acquire ETH
💳 Square announced all terminals support Bitcoin payments
📈 US stocks surged collectively, with the Nasdaq rebounding violently

📉 And the result?
Bitcoin didn’t hit a new high
Ethereum just touched the high from two weeks ago
MSTR opened high but closed low last night, and the trend still looks bad.

Especially MSTR, don’t forget, it is essentially Bitcoin’s “sentiment leverage”:

🧠 MSTR ≈ Option premium of future rise expectations of BTC
Often leads BTC by 1-2 weeks to signal turning points

Now it’s weakening, and the premium is shrinking, indicating that the market is “actively cooling” its expectations for future trends.

This is not a positive signal and could even be one of the signs of a potential top.

What do you think about the weak performance of BTC, ETH, and MSTR last night?
Feel free to leave a comment for discussion
👇 If you find it valuable, a like + follow + share is the biggest support!
📈

The review brothers and sisters of Binance Square,
Take a good look at my in-depth sharing,
Such wonderful and professional content, yet it has no traffic.

You go to X, I can't even invite you!