Both Tron (TRX) and Dogecoin (DOGE) have fallen over the past month in a bear market. However, DOGE has experienced a more pronounced decline, with a drop of over 20% during that period, compared to a 3% drop for TRX. The Tron cryptocurrency is just behind Dogecoin in terms of market capitalization, as TRX has had a solid year to gain ground against the leading meme cryptocurrency. If the current trend continues, DOGE could fall behind TRX in cryptocurrency rankings by the end of 2025.
Tron already took a big step earlier this month, surpassing Cardano ADA and becoming the ninth most valuable cryptocurrency by market capitalization. However, surpassing DOGE would be a significant achievement, as DOGE has occupied the eighth position or higher for years. The leading meme cryptocurrency has struggled in 2025, with a 45% drop so far this year. Meanwhile, TRX has risen 5% year-to-date.
DOGE is currently experiencing a prolonged price drop, affected by various external forces, including the recent conflict between the Dogefather, Elon Musk, and the United States. Devastating geopolitical narratives are also hitting the market as a whole, increasing pressure on DOGE lately. While bullish predictions anticipate a surge of DOGE to $5 or $10, the current trend of the asset is causing rival cryptocurrencies to outperform it.
DOGE has gained a large number of followers in its 11 years of history. The original memecoin has even found support from tech billionaire Elon Musk. Musk has publicly stated that Dogecoin (DOGE) is his favorite cryptocurrency. Musk has even enabled payments with DOGE for many of his companies, such as Tesla and SpaceX.
There is also a pending request for a Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF awaiting approval from the SEC. The SEC recently welcomed pro-cryptocurrency candidate Paul Atkins as its director. The agency has withdrawn several cryptocurrency-related lawsuits following Atkins's takeover. There is a high probability that a DOGE ETF will be approved under his leadership. A DOGE ETF could trigger a substantial price surge for the memecoin. However, the SEC's delay in its decision has complicated the situation, affecting the future price of DOGE and opening the door for TRX.
If a spot Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF is approved before the end of 2025, there is a strong likelihood that DOGE will remain ahead of TRX in terms of value and market capitalization. Additionally, DOGE could even surpass Solana if everything goes well, although the approval of the Solana SOL ETF is still pending.
CoinCodex analysts are currently competing between TRX and Dogecoin in the race towards December 31, 2025. For Tron, analysts project an average price of $0.547128 for December 2025 and a maximum price of $0.600621. However, CoinCode's analysis forecasts an average price of $0.187621 for DOGE for the same date and a maximum price of $0.197849.