On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a massive airstrike codenamed 'Lion's Might' (or 'Awakening of the Lion'), with over 200 aircraft (including F-35 stealth fighters) targeting Iran, launching over 330 munitions, precision strikes on 25 targets including the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and the Revolutionary Guard headquarters, and 'decapitating' 20 senior commanders including Revolutionary Guard Chief Salami and Chief of Staff Baqeri, as well as 6 nuclear scientists. Iran urgently closed its airspace, raised the flag of revenge, and complained to the United Nations, 'This is a declaration of war!'
💥 Three-dimensional strangulation: How the Israeli military's 'surgical operation' tore apart Iran's defenses
Accurate intelligence and infiltration warfare become the core of victory
- Paralyzed air defense system: Mossad agents infiltrated western Iran in advance, guiding missiles to destroy radar stations and surface-to-air launchers, opening a 'stealth corridor' for F-35s.
- 'Fishing' decapitation of command center: The Israeli military released false intelligence to lure senior Revolutionary Guard air force officials to gather at an underground command center for a meeting, followed by a precise detonation of a bunker-busting bomb, killing core commanders including Hajizadeh on the spot.
- Deep destruction of nuclear facilities: The underground centrifuge hall of the Natanz uranium enrichment plant was penetrated by a bunker-busting bomb, and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed 'severe structural damage', with no radioactive material leakage reported.
This operation has been described by military experts as 'the most precise intelligence operation of the 21st century', with the 'Resistance Arc' command chain built by Iran over ten years experiencing a catastrophic rupture.
🔍 Israel's all-in gamble: The deadly conspiracy of nuclear anxiety and geopolitical maneuvering
Three major drivers fuel a 'gamble for national fate' raid
1. Countdown to nuclear breakout: Iran's uranium enrichment purity has reached 60% (weapons-grade is 90%), with enough reserves to create 9 nuclear bombs. For the first time in 20 years, the IAEA has confirmed it is in violation of its non-proliferation obligations, and Israel assesses that 'only 4-6 months remain in the window'.
2. Disruption of US-Iran negotiations: The sixth round of nuclear talks was scheduled for June 15, but Israel, fearing US compromise, chose to launch an attack before negotiations to force the US to take a side.
3. Diverting domestic crises: The Netanyahu government faces a sharp decline in support due to the Gaza deadlock and judicial reform controversies, urgently needing an external military victory to consolidate public opinion.
Although the US denies direct involvement, it evacuated the families of diplomatic personnel from the Middle East in advance and provided intelligence cover for Israel, which Iran condemned as 'complicity'.
-🛡️ Iran's dilemma: A strategic shackle under the vow of revenge
Counterattacks face triple constraints
- Military capability disparity: The S-400 air defense network failed to intercept stealth aircraft, exposing technological shortcomings; while the hypersonic missile 'Fattah' can bypass the Israeli 'Iron Dome', doubts remain regarding stockpiles and launch capabilities.
- Internal fractures: The movements of senior Revolutionary Guard officials have been leaked, exposing an infiltrated intelligence system, with the public protesting the government's 'weakness', forcing Khamenei to hide in a bunker to command.
- International isolation: The US warns that 'the next wave of strikes will be more brutal', while China and Russia only call for restraint without substantive mediation, and the Security Council is paralyzed due to US and Israeli vetoes.
Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif submitted a 'declaration of war' complaint to the United Nations, but the options for retaliation are limited: a limited counterattack (through proxy wars by Hezbollah and the Houthis) or a full escalation (blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or direct attacks on Israeli nuclear facilities) — the former is unlikely to quell public anger, while the latter could invite catastrophe.
🌍 Global shockwaves: Oil prices soared 9%, the world held its breath for 48 hours
The economy and geopolitical order are facing reconstruction
- Market panic: Brent crude oil surged 10% in a single day, breaking through $94 per barrel, while gold hit a new high of $3400 per ounce, with global stock markets evaporating trillions of dollars in value.
- Spillover of proxy wars: The Houthis announced 'we will participate in the war', Iraq and Jordan closed their airspace, and Saudi Arabia urgently called for de-escalation, with the Strait of Hormuz becoming the most dangerous powder keg.
- Collapse of the non-proliferation regime: If Iran withdraws (from the Non-Proliferation Treaty), it will accelerate its nuclear ambitions, potentially leading to a multi-nation nuclear race in the Middle East, ending Israel's 'nuclear ambiguity' monopoly.
> The New York Times bluntly states: This conflict will join the ranks of 1956, 1967, and 1973, becoming a pivotal war reshaping the Middle East.
-⏳ The crossroads of the Middle East: Is peace dead, or on the eve of rebirth?
Israel claims the action 'has only just begun', and Netanyahu unusually addresses the Iranian people in Persian: 'We do not hate you; tyranny is our common enemy!' — interpreted as inciting internal unrest in Iran.
But the real historical choice rests in Iran's hands:
- If limited retaliation is chosen, it could maintain the status quo of 'shadow wars', but the regime's credibility would be tarnished.
- A blockade of the Strait or an attack on the Dimona nuclear base would inevitably trigger US military involvement, and the sixth war in the Middle East would be unavoidable.
💎 The ultimate paradox
Israel temporarily alleviated the nuclear threat with a gamble for national fate, but placed itself under the Damocles sword of Iranian revenge; Iran vowed 'devastating responses', yet is constrained by military capability disparity and a struggling economy. When the ashes of great power games fall upon the shoulders of civilians, the smoke of war in the Middle East once again warns the world: military victory can never end hatred; it is merely the prologue to a greater tragedy.
> (New York Times) Thomas Friedman: The collapse of authoritarian regimes often begins with a humiliating defeat, but the lesson of the Middle East is — chaos is often the only alternative to despotism.
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