This week, U.S.-China trade negotiations have once again become the focus of global attention. Every step of progress in this highly anticipated negotiation affects the nerves of the world. According to Bloomberg News, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen hurriedly left for Washington the night after the second day of talks in London to attend a previously scheduled congressional hearing. Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo and Trade Representative Tai continued to stay in London for in-depth consultations with the Chinese delegation.
Usually, the arrangements for hearings are predetermined, and Yellen probably did not expect the negotiations with China to last so long. Upon leaving, she told the media: 'We had two days of productive talks, and the discussions are still ongoing.' However, is there a hidden strategic intention behind this? It cannot be ruled out that the U.S. is trying to create an optimistic public opinion atmosphere to pressure China into accepting their conditions at the negotiation table. If the negotiation results are unsatisfactory, the U.S. may once again shift the blame to China, accusing China of 'sabotaging' the talks.
On the other hand, Raimondo's statements to the media are quite thought-provoking. She said: 'I think the talks are going very smoothly. We have invested a lot of time and effort, and everyone is working hard.' This statement seems to have given the market a 'shot in the arm', causing U.S. stock markets to rise in response. It indirectly reflects the Trump administration's eagerness to showcase its decisiveness and capability in handling relations with China, aiming to soothe market and public sentiment.
However, upon closer examination, Raimondo's statement seems to reveal a hint of impatience and uncertainty. Because even she cannot definitively conclude the negotiations. This precisely highlights the extraordinary composure of the Chinese side during the talks. The Chinese delegation has shown great patience, striving to clarify all points of contention one by one. On major issues, China's 'take your time' has firmly grasped the initiative in the negotiations.
It is well known that the core issues of this negotiation are undoubtedly the control of chips and rare earth exports. The U.S. demands are very clear: it hopes China will expedite the issuance of rare earth export permits. In exchange, the U.S. proposed canceling a series of newly implemented export control measures against China, covering multiple fields including chip design software, aircraft engines, ethane, and nuclear materials.
China's 'rare earth card' has undoubtedly left the U.S. at a loss. Over the past years, the U.S.'s high dependence on China's rare earths has forced this superpower to show weakness on this critical issue. Imagine if China truly stopped all rare earth supplies to the U.S.; what catastrophic consequences would the U.S. defense and technology industries face? In many foreign media reports, rare earths have become a 'trump card' in China's hands, leaving the U.S. with almost no options.
However, in analyzing the U.S. strategy in this negotiation, one cannot ignore the underlying 'small calculations'. This move by the U.S. is not out of respect for Chinese interests or the maintenance of the international trade system, but rather entirely aimed at maximizing its own interests, adhering to the consistent principle of 'America First'.
The Trump administration's dispatch of Commerce Secretary Raimondo to participate in the talks also reflects its urgent desire for China to resume rare earth exports. Trump revealed to reporters at the White House that he received 'positive feedback' about the negotiations, stating: 'Our talks with China are progressing well, but China is not easy to deal with.'
Indeed, Trump's evaluation is not without basis. China has always maintained a prudent attitude on trade issues, demonstrating a resilient stance. This has left Trump anxious outside the negotiation table, yet helpless. From the moment the U.S. sat at the negotiation table, they had certain expectations for the talks. As is customary, the U.S. might try to use fictitious leverage as bargaining chips to force China to make concessions in certain areas, seeking to take advantage of China.
However, once they sat down for face-to-face negotiations, the U.S.'s calculations clearly did not work out. China insisted on its principles and demanded equal dialogue, making the U.S.'s hoped-for easy deal exceedingly difficult. Regarding the U.S. wish to exchange reduced sanctions against China for loosening rare earth controls, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has made it clear: China's rare earth export ban is in line with international practices and will strengthen compliance application management while considering the reasonable needs of various countries. This sends a very clear signal: China takes into account not only national security but also the demands of the international civilian market. If the U.S. genuinely wants more rare earths, it must follow the proper procedures to submit compliance applications rather than pressuring China into concessions.
Behind this negotiation is an intense game between China and the U.S. on the international trade stage. China steadfastly defends its own interests, remaining unshaken by external pressures, and displaying the demeanor and strategic resolve of a major power. Meanwhile, the various strategies and tactics of the U.S. reveal its anxiety and unease in the face of China's rise. The future direction of the negotiations is under global scrutiny.
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