At a delicate time when the U.S. stock market was closed over the weekend and market liquidity was scarce, Bitcoin showed extraordinary stability - the scale of the chip accumulation at the $105,000 mark has climbed to 1.84 million. Although the momentum of capital inflows in the Asian market has slowed down, the short-term risk aversion in the North American market has driven USDC to achieve a net inflow of $638 million over the weekend. However, this calm appearance is being torn apart by two major geopolitical conflict storms.
Breaking news came from the Persian Gulf: the Israeli Air Force precisely struck Iran's Abadan refinery, causing a disruption of 2 million barrels of crude oil production per day, and Brent oil prices instantly soared to $123. Iran's Ministry of Petroleum quickly canceled the nuclear agreement negotiations with the United States and announced the restart of uranium enrichment centrifuges. Its tough stance prompted the International Atomic Energy Agency to hold an emergency special meeting. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell rarely mentioned at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting: "Energy price fluctuations may delay the process of interest rate cuts by at least three months."
What makes the market even more nervous is the political drama in Washington, DC. The Trump administration plans to launch the "American Power Show Plan" at midnight on the 24th, including a formation of B-21 stealth bombers flying over the Capitol and a convoy of M1A2 Abrams tanks parading on Pennsylvania Avenue. The "No King Day" Protest Coordination Committee issued a "Level 5 Confrontation Warning" through the dark web. Its members include veterans groups, environmental organizations and civil rights activists, and the scale of the demonstration is expected to exceed 4 million people. The latest satellite images show that the M18 "Hellhound" minesweeper at the Arlington Armory in Virginia has entered standby mode.
It is worth noting that the open interest of the S&P 500 mini contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange surged by 125% in 24 hours, of which short positions accounted for as high as 43.7%, setting a new high since the new crown circuit breaker in 2020. The net outflow of funds from the Bitcoin spot ETF reached US$178 million, and the flow of funds showed that a large number of institutional positions were being transferred to the gold ETF (GLD) and the Swiss franc (FXF).
Market analysts warn that if Iran launches the "Strait of Hormuz blockade", crude oil futures may test the $150 mark, which will trigger the "dot plot reset" in the Fed's emergency interest rate toolbox. If the Trump administration uses the (Anti-Insurrection Act of 1871), it will lead to a technical correction of at least 10% in the S&P 500 index. Investors need to closely monitor the CME's fear index (VIX) breaking through the key threshold of 35, which usually indicates the outbreak of systemic risks.
The current market exhibits a rare "dual-track safe-haven" feature: among traditional safe-haven assets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell back to 4.12%, while physical gold ETF holdings increased for the fifth consecutive week; in the digital asset field, Bitcoin turnover rate remained at normal weekend levels, but the trading volume of "censorship-resistant assets" such as Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) surged by 286%, showing a subtle change in the market's confidence in the traditional financial system.
As the protest entered its 48th hour, Washington, DC has declared a state of emergency, and the National Guard's M1126 Stryker armored vehicles have begun to be deployed at the intersection of 14th Street. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's gold reserve withdrawals reached 19.8 tons over the weekend, setting a record for the highest weekly withdrawal since 2008. This complex game that combines geopolitics, digital finance and street politics is reshaping the operating logic of the global capital market. Investors need to be prepared to deal with "black swans flying in droves" because historical experience shows that real market turning points often occur at a time when most people have not yet noticed.
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