I’ve got wrecked on ETH because most breakouts fail.

Macro now confirms the slow-hand approach.

Global M2 liquidity is still the easiest, dumbest north star for crypto: when M2 turns up, Bitcoin follows, and ETH eventually rides.

Ignore it and you chase tops; front-run it and you’re early.

So the distilled framework is: respect ETH’s range until it proves otherwise, watch M2 for the real macro trigger, and position early in decentralized AI infra.

Nvidia tripled its valuation in 18 months, and VCs are showering every LLM startup. The stack is still painfully centralized. If regulators tighten the screws on the hyperscalers, capital has to rotate somewhere and open, permissionless infra starts looking like the only real alternative.

So the playbook is simple, if not sexy:

• Trade ETH like the range it is, not the breakout you wish it were.

• Track global M2; it’s still the North Star for risk.

• Accumulate the infra that will matter when AI capital finally hunts for open rails.

How you can front-run the crowd with a repeatable framework👇🧵