So after all that digging and scrolling and peering into flow charts and treasury theories I figured I might as well take a look at how ADA is behaving on the four-hour chart, not because I expect fireworks or clarity but simply because when someone says they want to convert one hundred million dollars worth of ADA into stablecoins and bitcoin, the least we can do is glance at the candles and see what the market thinks of it, although to be honest the bigger movers right now are probably the Iranian conflict updates and the global oil recalibration, with traders darting in and out of anything that even smells like a safe asset, which, to be clear, does not include Cardano, despite the fact that it still gets confused with some boutique Italian bicycle label.
The chart tells a restrained story. ADA touched 0.6180 and held, which is something, though what followed was not a recovery, just sideways movement in a tight channel between 0.636 and 0.645, with the midline of the Bollinger Bands acting like a disinterested lid rather than a springboard, and if you look at MACD, which is a basic momentum oscillator based on moving averages, the lines are still below zero and still below each other, though they are starting to converge again, which traders often interpret as the beginning of something but rarely trust until volume confirms it.
As for RSI, the values are low enough to suggest the market is tired, not collapsed, with RSI(6) around 30 and RSI(24) drifting below 40, a zone that tends to precede either a bounce or further indecision, and the Stochastic RSI is curling back up from under 30, which means it is trying to regain short-term strength but has no confirmation yet from volume or trend.
Speaking of volume, On Balance Volume has not recovered, sitting deep in negative territory, which implies that despite some short bursts of buying, the cumulative pressure still leans toward exit, and the Williams %R reading of -76 suggests that ADA is oversold, or at least undervalued relative to recent price action, although in a market like this that does not guarantee a reversal.
Now if we take a look at the money flow data from the past 24 hours, we see that while total buys and sells are nearly matched—21.19 million in buys versus 21.35 million in sells—the inflow from large wallets is still negative, which reflects cautious or even bearish positioning from entities that usually matter, and over the past five days that same large wallet category has drained more than 2.4 million ADA from net inflow, which is a signal that bigger holders are not currently interested in front-running any upside move.
The conclusion, then, is not complicated. The market absorbed the Hoskinson treasury news with a shrug, perhaps because it already knew the fundamentals or perhaps because nobody expects these announcements to lead to immediate execution. The technicals are showing a neutral to mildly bearish posture, with no immediate threat of collapse but also no compelling signal to re-enter. Most indicators are pointing sideways or slightly up, but none of them have crossed into confirmation.
And that is all there is to say about this for now. Everyone else can go back to watching Telegram, where the only thing moving faster than price is the stream of raw footage from the latest round of destruction.
